Bill Ackman Finally Pukes: Beware Of False Narratives

A year ago we wrote about why Bill Ackman should learn a bit of technical analysis. We weren’t suggesting he become an Elliott Wave nut or anything, but that he should adopt the risk management philosophy of a technician. TA clearly defines when to exit a trade. And with this clarity comes superb risk control — our number one job as traders. But of course our advice fell on deaf ears. Ackman continued to ignore all the technical sell signals in his very public Valeant position. From that time, the stock has dropped another 65%…   Fundamental investing relies on […]

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Member Of Congress Warns Of A 1,000 Point Stock Market Crash If Obamacare Lite Does Not Pass

Are we going to see a dramatic stock market plunge if the effort to get “Obamacare Lite” through the U.S. House of Representatives ultimately fails?  On Thursday, a vote on the Republican healthcare bill was postponed once it became clear that there would not be enough votes for it to pass.  House Republican leaders are still optimistic that there will still be a vote on Friday, but that is far from certain.  Many strong conservatives in the House are balking at supporting this bill because while it does eliminate a few of the most troublesome provisions of Obamacare, it keeps […]

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American Kids Can Do More than Sing and Dunk

I like music, but it’s probably more accurate to say that I like songs. The difference is obvious when my wife and I roll down the street listening to the radio. I’ll hum the tune and, quite badly, sing the words. My wife, on the other hand, is just as likely to make fun of the simple chord progression or repetitive notes as she is to join in the chorus. She’s musically inclined, and hears a lot more of what’s going on in the background than I ever will. I think it’s awesome. The world needs people with all kinds […]

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Precious Metals Demand Plummets In the West and Surges In the East

With the Trump euphoria pushing the broader markets to new all-time highs, it has impacted precious metals demand considerably… especially in February. Precious metals investors believing the White House “Grandiose plans”, of making American great again, have cut back seriously on their precious metals buying. There seems to be a percentage of the alternative community that are convinced that Trump will actually put the U.S. back to the way it was in the 1960’s. And that is, back to a manufacturing powerhouse with high-paying jobs. While this would be a wonderful thing to do, the continued disintegration of the global […]

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The Worst Retail Cataclysm Ever: Sears Warns It Is On The Verge Of Collapse As Payless Prepares To File For Bankruptcy

More than 3,500 retail stores are going to close all across America over the next few months as the worst retail downturn in U.S. history gets even deeper.  Earlier this week, Sears shocked the world when it announced that there is “substantial doubt” that the company will be able to “continue as a going concern” much longer.  In other words, Sears has announced that it is on the verge of imminent collapse.  Meanwhile, Payless stunned the retail industry when it came out that they are preparing to file for bankruptcy.  The “retail apocalypse” that I have been warning about is […]

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Lessons From A Trading Great: Jim Leitner

Jim Leitner is the greatest macro trader you’ve never heard of. He was once a currency expert on Wall Street, pulling billions from the markets, but now he plays the game through his own family office. Leitner understands the Macro Ops “go anywhere” mentality better than any other trader: Global macro is the willingness to opportunistically look at every idea that comes along, from micro situations to country-specific situations, across every asset category and every country in the world. It’s the combination of a broad top-down country analysis with a bottom-up micro analysis of companies. In many cases, after we […]

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Have We Reached A Turning Point For Stocks? Tuesday Was The Worst Day For The Stock Market In 6 Months

The post-election stock market rally is officially over.  After hovering near record highs for the past couple of weeks, U.S. stocks had their worst day in six months on Tuesday.  For quite some time it has been clear that the momentum of the post-election rally had been exhausted, and a pullback of this nature was widely anticipated.  But even though stocks fell by more than 1 percent during a single trading session for the first time since last September, it is going to take a whole lot more than that to bring stock prices back into balance.  In fact, stocks […]

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This is Not Just About Trump and Brexit

I’ve been writing a lot about what I see as the mega trend right now… and what will make this economic winter season different from the 1930s. We’re not just seeing a classic debt and financial asset bubble that will unravel into a deflationary depression, as occurred in the 1930s and many times throughout history. We’re not just seeing a populist revolution, as we saw with Hitler and Mussolini in the 1930s and World War II, and as has occurred about every 84 years throughout history. We ARE seeing the early stages of a major 250-year cultural, political and social […]

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Low Gold and Silver Premiums Beckon, but Be Careful…

Holding some physical gold and silver has been a good idea for a few thousand years. That never changes. However, some moments are better than others when it comes to picking an entry point. Now may be one of those auspicious times. Plentiful inventory and soft demand have pushed premiums for bullion products to their lowest levels in years. U.S. 90% silver coins minted before 1965 – aka “junk silver” – can now be had for less than $ 1/oz over the spot price. Pre-1933 U.S. gold coins have also fallen dramatically in price. Mints, refiners, and dealers are cutting […]

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The Rules of a Side Hustle

I’m a big fan of using Uber in lieu of a traditional taxi when I travel, but I had a peculiar experience recently in Lima, Peru. If you’ve read some of my work before, you may know that my wife is from Peru. It was hot that day, and I was headed to grab a drink overlooking the sea. I hailed a standard Uber X. (As Lance made abundantly clear a few weeks ago, I have a well-deserved reputation as a tightwad, and I would never spring for Uber Black.) But what greeted me curbside was not the usually well-used […]

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