Trumphoria: Americans Are More Optimistic About The Economy Than They Have Been Since Obama’s Win In 2008

Optimism about the future of the U.S. economy has not been this strong since Barack Obama’s first presidential election victory in 2008. Donald Trump promised us an economic resurgence, and what is not to like so far? As I discussed earlier this week, stocks are soaring, businesses are already announcing that they are bringing jobs back to the United States, and the U.S. dollar has been lifted to levels that we haven’t seen in many years. Many are referring to this post-election surge as “Trumphoria”, and I think that is quite appropriate. Personally, I couldn’t imagine financial markets behaving this […]

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What has gone wrong with oil prices, debt, and GDP growth?

Our economy is a mystery to almost everyone, including economists. Let me explain the way I see the situation: (1) The big thing that pulls the economy forward is the time-shifting nature of debt and debt-like instruments. If we want any kind of specialization, we need some sort of long-term obligation that will make that specialization worthwhile. If one hunter-gatherer specializes in finding flints that will start fires, that hunter-gatherer needs some sort of guarantee that others, who are finding food, will share some of their food with him, so that the group, as a whole, can prosper. Others, who […]

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There’s Not a Snowball’s Chance in Hell of 4% Growth!

What the hell are Donald Trump and his new Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, smoking?! A new supply-side strategy? Just when we have overcapacity everywhere thanks to the greatest debt bubble in modern history; one that’s caused consumers, businesses and governments to overinvest and buy? This is, without a doubt, the stupidest thing I have ever heard! They actually think that businesses are going to expand under their new strategy. Ha! Businesses didn’t expand with zero interest rates. Instead, they bought back their own stocks and financed near-meaningless mergers and acquisitions? Sure, Ronald Reagan became president following the greatest inflation and […]

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Trump’s Task List for Reining in Our Reckless Central Bank

President-elect Donald Trump will soon have the opportunity to put his stamp on the Federal Reserve. And that is making the elite body of central bankers nervous. On the campaign trail, Trump harangued Fed chair Janet Yellen for pumping up financial markets with cheap money – accusing the Obama appointee of being politically motivated. Trump also called for the Federal Reserve to be audited. The Fed operates in secret, creates inflation, and bails out Wall Street. Fed officials worry the Trump presidency represents a unique threat to the Fed’s closely guarded “independence.” Sound money proponents, meanwhile, are hopeful that some […]

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The in-betweeners

How effective is monetary policy? Highly effective, according to the Governor of the Bank of England. In a speech earlier this week, Mark Carney robustly defended the Bank of England’s record: “Simulations using the Bank’s main forecasting model suggest that the Bank’s monetary policy measures raised the level of GDP by around 8% relative to trend and lowered unemployment by 4 percentage points at their peak. Without this action, real wages would have been 8% lower, or around £2,000 per worker per year, and 1.5 million more people would have been out of work.” Well, lots of us might agree […]

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Are We Being Set Up For A Crash? Stocks Hit A Level Only Seen During The Bubbles Of 1929, 2000 And 2007

Will the financial bubble that has been rapidly growing ever since Donald Trump won the election suddenly be popped once he takes office?  Could it be possible that we are being set up for a horrible financial crash that he will ultimately be blamed for?  Yesterday, I shared my thoughts on the incredible euphoria that we have seen since Donald Trump’s surprise victory on November 8th.  The U.S. dollar has been surging, companies are announcing that they are bringing jobs back to the U.S., and we are witnessing perhaps the greatest post-election stock market rally in Wall Street history.  In […]

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‘It Is Like A Nuclear Bomb Went Off In The Prepping Community’

Is the prepper movement in the United States dying?  At one time it was estimated that there were 3 million preppers in the United States, but in late 2016 interest in prepping has hit a multi-year low.  The big reason for this, of course, is that the election of Donald Trump has fueled a tremendous wave of optimism among those that consider themselves to be conservatives, patriots and evangelical Christians.  Not since the election of Ronald Reagan has the mood on the right shifted in such a positive direction so suddenly.  But now that everyone is feeling so good about […]

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Lessons From A Trading Great: Stanley Druckenmiller

The “greatest money making machine in history”, a man with “Jim Roger’s analytical ability, George Soros’ trading ability, and the stomach of a riverboat gambler” is how fund manager Scott Bessent describes Stanley Druckenmiller. That’s high praise, but if you look at Druckenmiller’s track record, you’ll find it’s well deserved. Druck averaged over 30% returns the last three decades — impressive. But what’s even more astonishing is the lack of volatility… the guy almost never loses. He never had a single down year and only had five losing quarters out of 120 altogether! That’s absolutely unheard of. And he did […]

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Taking a Closer Look at the Latest Employment Numbers

Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 178,000 jobs – with 156,000 in the private sector and 22,000 in government – which is right in line with the monthly average for 2016. But let’s dig a little deeper past the headline numbers. For years we’ve argued that there’s more to the story than just the number of jobs created. We want to know, and our economy depends on, how much money people are paid. To answer that question, years ago we created the Dent Employment Index. It tracks the new jobs created each month […]

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Gold In London & Hong Kong Is Used To Settle COMEX Futures

BullionStar Physical gold located in Hong Kong and London is used to settle COMEX gold futures contracts through “Exchange For Physical” trading in the over-the-counter market. This post is a sequel to Understanding GOFO And The Gold Wholesale Market and COMEX Gold Futures Can Be Settled Directly With Eligible Inventory – in which Exchange For Physical (EFP) trading is explained and how it can increase or decrease open interest at the COMEX. If you’re new to this subject it’s advised to first read my previous posts. Most gold analysts surmise COMEX 100-ounce gold futures contracts (GC) can only be physically […]

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