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Welcome To The Hunger Games: Trump’s Tax Plan Is Going To Mean A Battle Royal Among D.C. Lobbyists

Are you ready for mass chaos in Washington?  There are lobbyists for just about every cause that you can possibly imagine, and they are always working hard to influence members of Congress on their particular issues.  But when you are talking about a major tax reform bill, that is something that virtually every single lobbyist in the entire city will want to be involved in.  Our tax code is over two million words long, and the regulations are over seven million words long, and any changes to our immensely complex system could have absolutely enormous implications.  There will be winners […]

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Stock Investors Should Brace for the Fed’s October Tightening Gambit

September’s Federal Reserve meeting left interest rates unchanged but sounded a hawkish tone. The Fed seems intent on hiking interest rates again come December. Following Fed chair Janet Yellen’s remarks this Tuesday, interest rate futures markets bumped up the odds of a year-end rate hike to 81%. The more immediate – and perhaps more important – policy move pending from the central bank is its plan to gradually reverse its Quantitative Easing bond buying program starting in October. Yellen calls it “balance sheet normalization.” She is right in acknowledging that there’s nothing normal about the $ 4.5 trillion balance sheet […]

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A.I. Bets & All-Time Low Bond Volatility (Macro Musings)

Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings. Just a reminder, we’re releasing the newest issue of our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR) early next week. In it we’re covering a basket of agricultural stocks that are ready to rip just like our IPI play (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, read our article below). Phase 3, the Overheat Phase, is a target rich environment. There’s a lot of profits to be made. If you’d like to come along for the ride, make sure you subscribe to the MIR by clicking here. Our Recent Articles — The Overheat Phase: We […]

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What if Bitcoin is Fool’s Gold?

How many currencies do you carry in your wallet? OK, I’m showing my age. I actually have a wallet. And I carry it. Mostly. Inside, you’ll find a couple of credit cards, an odd receipt or two, and greenbacks. I live in the U.S., so I use dollars. But I also carry my smartphone, and I use Apple Pay wherever possible. I’m not geeking out, I just try to rack up points on my cashback credit card, and tapping my smartphone is a lot easier than dragging out my credit card and dealing with finicky swipe readers. I don’t carry […]

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Daily Speculations: Samurai, Livermore, and Market Timeframes

Daily Speculations are just a post for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from one of one of the weekly market Briefs I write each week for members of the Collective. I wrote this one last year some time. It’s about Samurais, Livermore and market timing, obviously.  Enjoy. There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in […]

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Preparing For The Macro Regime Shift To The “Overheat Phase”

Legendary speculator, Jesse Livermore, credits the following realization with transforming his trading game and turning him into one of the greats. He said: Tape reading was an important part of the game; so was beginning at the right time; so was sticking to your position. But my greatest discovery was that a man must study general conditions, to size them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities. A man must study general conditions, to size them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities…. This truth was realized by market wizard Michael Marcus over half a century later when […]

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The UK’s political crisis

On the evening of Friday, September 22nd, the credit ratings agency Moody’s downgraded the UK’s credit rating. Admittedly, it was only by one notch. But coming as it did hard on the heels of Theresa May’s grand speechin Florence, it was a shattering blow.  Credit ratings agencies lost much of their lustre in the financial crisis of 2008, when they were revealed to have been complicit in the mispricing of complex financial derivatives – the “toxic waste” that brought down some of the world’s largest financial institutions. So it is tempting to dismiss Moody’s action as pointless and its analysis […]

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Daily Speculations: The Holy Grail of Investing

Daily Speculations are just a post for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from Ray Dalio’s recent book Principles recounting his biggest aha!” moment in investing (emphasis is mine). From my earlier failures, I knew that no matter how confident I was in making anyone bet I could still be wrong — and that proper diversification was the key to […]

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Why political correctness fails – Why what we know ‘for sure’ is wrong

Most of us are familiar with the Politically Correct (PC) World View. William Deresiewicz describes the view, which he calls the “religion of success,” as follows: There is a right way to think and a right way to talk, and also a right set of things to think and talk about. Secularism is taken for granted. Environmentalism is a sacred cause. Issues of identity—principally the holy trinity of race, gender, and sexuality—occupy the center of concern. There are other beliefs that go with this religion of success: Wind and solar will save us. Electric cars will make transportation possible indefinitely. Our world […]

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Sanctions on North Korea, War on Crypto-Currencies

The dangerous provocations between North Korea and the United States haven’t yet escalated enough to rattle financial markets. The U.S. stock market notched another new record high last week, helping to blunt safe-haven demand for gold and silver. The North Korea situation is, however, causing political reverberations in the crytpo-currency markets. Following China’s recent crackdown on crytpo-currency exchanges, U.S. officials may be gearing up for a regulatory attack on Bitcoin as part of an economic sanctions package. Enter Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey (D). In an interview on CNN last Friday, Markey said, “The only answer is to go to final […]

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