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The Global Macro Renaissance

John Curran was the former head of commodities at Caxton Associates — the hedge fund founded by market wizard Bruce Kovner. He wrote a great article in Barron’s titled The Coming Renaissance of Macro Investing. In the piece, John writes about what he sees as the coming paradigm shift in markets and how this shift will lead to the resurgence of macro investing. Here’s a snippet from the article: In meetings with fund managers, asset allocators, and analysts, I have found a virtually universal view that macro investing—investing based on global macroeconomic and political, not security-specific trends—is dead, fueled by […]

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Precious Metals: A Coiling Spring

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily except for some days when I don’t. I’ve been keeping a close eye on precious metal stocks. They’re coiling in a tight pattern and look set for an explosive move in one direction or another. Below is XAU the gold and silver index on a weekly basis. Here a quick rundown on how I think about precious metals. Like Ray […]

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A Single Grain of Sand

Brexit. Markets up. Shock election of President Trump. Markets up. Drum beats of war with North Korea. Markets up. Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Markets up. Wild fire incinerating Northern California. Markets up. There is nothing – nothing – rational about the Dow breaching 23,000 yesterday. Yet it did. (And in short order it’ll come up against a resistance level, which I’ll tell you about in a few moments.) But then that’s the nature of bubbles. And that’s what makes them so hard to predict. They go up, and up, and up, and up, and up… until one day they reverse. […]

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Palladium and Rhodium on Fire, Is Platinum Next?

Platinum was once the most precious of metals. For decades, it traded at a premium to gold. The other platinum group metals – palladium and rhodium – barely registered on investors’ radar screens. Platinum lost its crown to gold in 2015. It was overtaken by the other PGM metals in recent weeks. Given that platinum, palladium, and rhodium demand is largely driven by automobile manufacturing and the production of catalytic converters, one of these things is likely true; platinum is currently undervalued, or the other two have gotten ahead of themselves. 1 oz rhodium bars run about $ 1,455 each. […]

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The Clash of Megatrends That Leaves Consumers Without a Chance

I think Dilbert is hilarious. The comic strip’s creator, Scott Adams, has incredible insight into everyday life. More than a decade ago, he showed the cartoon’s title character in a grocery store. A clerk asked Dilbert, a white-collar, micromanaged engineer by day, if he wanted to sign up for the store’s loyalty card so he could save on purchases. His reply went something like this: “So you want my personal information, which you’ll then use to track me and market to me, and in return I get the manufacturers’ rebates that I’ve always received? And if I don’t give you […]

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How The Elite Dominate The World – Part 3: 90% Of What You Watch On Television Is Controlled By Just 6 Giant Corporations

How much is your view of the world shaped by what you see on television?  On average, Americans spend more than 150 hours watching television every month, and it is called “programming” for a reason.  If you allow anyone to pour ideas and information into your mind for five hours a day, it is going to change how you look at reality.  Everyone has an agenda, and every single news program, television show and movie is trying to alter your views.  Sadly, our society has become absolutely addicted to media, and the mainstream media is completely dominated by the elite.  […]

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Ray Dalio’s Portfolio Allocation Strategy: The Holy Grail

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from Ray Dalio’s recent book Principles recounting his biggest aha!” moment in investing. This epiphany is what helped Dalio develop the unmatched asset allocation strategy he uses in his investment portfolios (emphasis is mine):  From my earlier failures, I knew that no matter how confident I was in making anyone […]

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The Distribution Of Returns The Randomness Embedded In Them (Daily Speculations)

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily except for some days when I don’t. As traders, one of the most important traits we can adopt is humility. We have to embrace our fallibility. Markets are complex systems. We cannot know all the relevant variables and causal relationships. Therefore, when we make a market prediction or place a trade, we can’t truly know if the subsequent outcome occurred […]

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How The Elite Dominate The World – Part 2: 99.9% Of The Global Population Lives In A Country With A Central Bank

Even though the nations of the world are very deeply divided on almost everything else, somehow virtually all of them have been convinced that central banking is the way to go.  Today, less than 0.1% of the population of the world lives in a country that does not have a central bank.  Do you think that there is any possible way that this is a coincidence?  And it is also not a coincidence that we are now facing the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world.  In Part I of this series, I discussed the fact that total […]

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Samurai, Livermore, and Market Timeframes (Daily Speculations)

Daily Speculations are just a post for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from one of one of the weekly market Briefs I write each week for members of the Collective. I wrote this one last year some time. It’s about Samurais, Livermore and market timing, obviously.  Enjoy. There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in […]

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