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Hedge Fund Manager Mark Sellers On Becoming A Great Investor

This is a killer talk I came across from Hedge Fund manager Mark Sellers, speaking to some Harvard MBA kids on what it takes to make it in markets. Regardless of whether you consider yourself a trader or investor, Mark’s “seven traits” apply. Enjoy… First of all, I want to thank Daniel Goldberg for asking me to be here today and all of you for actually showing up. I haven’t been to Boston in a while but I did live here for a short time in 1991 & 1992 when I attended Berklee School of Music. I was studying to […]

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Blind Central Bankers and Quantum Overlords (Macro Musings)

Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings. As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group. Our Recent Articles — The Global Macro Renaissance: A paradigm shift is coming that’ll bring the resurgence of global macro trading. The Randomness Of Return Distributions: Being aware of the randomness embedded in the distribution of markets returns keeps us from falling for the ego trap where we mistake skill for luck, or information for noise. Precious Metals Are Coiling: Precious metal stocks are coiling in a tight pattern […]

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The Global Macro Renaissance

John Curran was the former head of commodities at Caxton Associates — the hedge fund founded by market wizard Bruce Kovner. He wrote a great article in Barron’s titled The Coming Renaissance of Macro Investing. In the piece, John writes about what he sees as the coming paradigm shift in markets and how this shift will lead to the resurgence of macro investing. Here’s a snippet from the article: In meetings with fund managers, asset allocators, and analysts, I have found a virtually universal view that macro investing—investing based on global macroeconomic and political, not security-specific trends—is dead, fueled by […]

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Precious Metals: A Coiling Spring

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily except for some days when I don’t. I’ve been keeping a close eye on precious metal stocks. They’re coiling in a tight pattern and look set for an explosive move in one direction or another. Below is XAU the gold and silver index on a weekly basis. Here a quick rundown on how I think about precious metals. Like Ray […]

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Ray Dalio’s Portfolio Allocation Strategy: The Holy Grail

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from Ray Dalio’s recent book Principles recounting his biggest aha!” moment in investing. This epiphany is what helped Dalio develop the unmatched asset allocation strategy he uses in his investment portfolios (emphasis is mine):  From my earlier failures, I knew that no matter how confident I was in making anyone […]

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The Distribution Of Returns The Randomness Embedded In Them (Daily Speculations)

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily except for some days when I don’t. As traders, one of the most important traits we can adopt is humility. We have to embrace our fallibility. Markets are complex systems. We cannot know all the relevant variables and causal relationships. Therefore, when we make a market prediction or place a trade, we can’t truly know if the subsequent outcome occurred […]

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Samurai, Livermore, and Market Timeframes (Daily Speculations)

Daily Speculations are just a post for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from one of one of the weekly market Briefs I write each week for members of the Collective. I wrote this one last year some time. It’s about Samurais, Livermore and market timing, obviously.  Enjoy. There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in […]

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Dr. Dre and SiFy (Macro Musings)

Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings. As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group. Our Recent Articles — The Best Trading Podcasts For Global Macro Investors: The list of podcasts we listen to each month. We’ve got both process and news/commentary listed. If you have any suggestions, be sure to list them in the comments! Articles I’m reading — I loved this piece in the New Yorker where a guy recounts his experience as an investor in the money burning pit that is […]

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The Best Trading Podcasts For Global Macro Investors

These days we’re flooded with information with barely enough time to digest it all. To help solve this, our team at Macro Ops tunes into trading podcasts. With trading podcasts, all those hours you spend driving, doing chores, or working out can also be used to catch up on markets and learn something new. Below you’ll find a list of podcasts we listen to on a monthly basis to keep our game sharp. We’ve separated them into two categories — process based and news/commentary/narrative based. The process based podcasts help us develop our macro trading strategies while the commentary helps […]

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The Wealth S-Curve That’s Driving Current Global Macro Trends

The graph above shows a logistic function that maps out a sigmoid curve… otherwise known as an S-curve. This function was popularized by mid-19th century scientist Pierre Francois Verhulst who applied it in his study of population growth. Verhulst found that population growth follows a certain S-curve. It grows at a steady state until it hits a certain point where it grows exponentially. This exponential growth sustains until the system hits a saturation point where it slows and eventually stops. The S-curve is one of those strange universal laws that shows up all over the place. Similar to how power […]

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