Is The Dollar About To Break?

A couple of my favorite quotes from legendary trader Bruce Kovner are: What I am really looking for is a consensus the market is not confirming. I like to know that there are a lot of people who are going to be wrong. As an alternative approach, one of the traders I know does very well in the stock index markets by trying to figure out how the stock market can hurt the most traders. It seems to work for him. If you can figure out how the majority of the market is positioned and where the most consensus trades […]

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Bill Ackman Finally Pukes: Beware Of False Narratives

A year ago we wrote about why Bill Ackman should learn a bit of technical analysis. We weren’t suggesting he become an Elliott Wave nut or anything, but that he should adopt the risk management philosophy of a technician. TA clearly defines when to exit a trade. And with this clarity comes superb risk control — our number one job as traders. But of course our advice fell on deaf ears. Ackman continued to ignore all the technical sell signals in his very public Valeant position. From that time, the stock has dropped another 65%…   Fundamental investing relies on […]

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Lessons From A Trading Great: Jim Leitner

Jim Leitner is the greatest macro trader you’ve never heard of. He was once a currency expert on Wall Street, pulling billions from the markets, but now he plays the game through his own family office. Leitner understands the Macro Ops “go anywhere” mentality better than any other trader: Global macro is the willingness to opportunistically look at every idea that comes along, from micro situations to country-specific situations, across every asset category and every country in the world. It’s the combination of a broad top-down country analysis with a bottom-up micro analysis of companies. In many cases, after we […]

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A Dovish Hike and a Third Step Before a Stumble?

The following is an excerpt from our weekly Market Brief. If you’re interested in learning more about Market Briefs and the Macro Ops Hub, click here. The Fed hiked on Wednesday as expected, bringing the Fed Funds rate to a whopping 1%. The market, with its rose colored glasses in full effect, interpreted the hike as dovish. In reality the meeting was neither overly dovish or hawkish. The Fed stuck to its playbook of hiking rates and muting expectations going forward. Their infamous dots still project two more planned hikes this year and three more the year following. Nautilus Research […]

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Flying Too Close To The Ground

It’s not how close you get to the ground, but how precise you can fly the airplane. If you feel so careless with your life that you want to be the world’s lowest flying aviator, then you might do it for a while — but then a great many former friends of mine are no longer with us, simply because they cut their margins too close. ~ Bob Hoover Bob Hoover was known as the “pilot’s pilot” — one of the greatest to have ever flown. He learned his skills as a fighter and test pilot for the Air Force and is best […]

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A Review Of George Soros’ “The Way Ahead” Lecture

The following review is straight from Operator James, a member of the Macro Ops Hub. With my TV broken for the last several months, and a useless repairman backed by a company going out of business, I’ve had a lot of time to devote to learning and thinking. Recently I realized I need to dig into fundamentals and decided George Soros was the best place to start. Thankfully there’s plenty of his speeches and lectures online (along with a lot of ‘Soros is the devil’ articles and something about him being a Nazi). Soros’ “The Way Ahead” lecture series from […]

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Hawkier Fed, Drowning Oil, and Insiders Jumping Ship

The following is an excerpt from our weekly Market Brief. If you’re interested in learning more about Market Briefs and the Macro Ops Hub, click here. The Fed is going to hike this Wednesday. They’ve made that clear. But why the complete reversal in tone since their last meeting? The answer is obviously because of the Fed’s unspoken third mandate — putting caps on bubbles. This is something it’s historically been poor at. But Yellen and team have commented in recent weeks on the market’s seemingly lack of concern over economic and political “uncertainty”. Charts like the one below are […]

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A Review Of Anthony Bolton’s “Investing Against The Tide”

The following review is straight from Operator Kean, a member of the Macro Ops Hub. To contact Kean, visit his website here. Anthony Bolton is one of Britain’s most well-known investors. He’s managed money professionally for close to 3 decades at Fidelity Investments, and during his time as head of the Special Situations Fund, he’s averaged annualised return of 20%! Bolton shares his wealth of experience in his professional self-styled journal titled Investing Against The Tide. Forwarded by well-known investor Peter Lynch, a long-time colleague of Bolton’s, the 200+ page book reflects Bolton’s investment philosophy and practices. While the book […]

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A Review Of Lawrence Creatura’s “Long and Short: Confessions of a Portfolio Manager”

The following review is straight from Operator Kean, a member of the Macro Ops Hub. To contact Kean, visit his website here. Lawrence Creatura recently shared his insights from over two decades of investing in markets. The following are my takeaways from Long & Short: Confessions of a Portfolio Manager. Identify Your Comparative Advantage Creatura advises that investors understand their edge. This point is similar to Warren Buffett’s advice about knowing your ‘Circle of Competence’ — finding what you’re really good at and being aware of where that boundary/circle ends. Creatura writes: Prominent fund manager Bill Miller, who as the […]

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The Capital Cycle

The following is an excerpt from our monthly Macro Intelligence Report (MIR). If you’re interested in learning more about the MIR, click here. If you’ve been following Macro Ops for a while, then you know the Bridgewater Debt Cycle model is the foundation for how we view larger market movements. The debt cycle drives the short-term business cycle (5-8 years) as well as the longer-term secular cycle (50-75 years). Here’s how it works: The central bank lowers interest rates, bringing down the cost of money This lower rate feeds into the rest of the economy, bringing down lending rates Borrowing becomes […]

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