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The Global Macro Renaissance

John Curran was the former head of commodities at Caxton Associates — the hedge fund founded by market wizard Bruce Kovner. He wrote a great article in Barron’s titled The Coming Renaissance of Macro Investing. In the piece, John writes about what he sees as the coming paradigm shift in markets and how this shift will lead to the resurgence of macro investing. Here’s a snippet from the article: In meetings with fund managers, asset allocators, and analysts, I have found a virtually universal view that macro investing—investing based on global macroeconomic and political, not security-specific trends—is dead, fueled by […]

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Precious Metals: A Coiling Spring

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily except for some days when I don’t. I’ve been keeping a close eye on precious metal stocks. They’re coiling in a tight pattern and look set for an explosive move in one direction or another. Below is XAU the gold and silver index on a weekly basis. Here a quick rundown on how I think about precious metals. Like Ray […]

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Ray Dalio’s Portfolio Allocation Strategy: The Holy Grail

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from Ray Dalio’s recent book Principles recounting his biggest aha!” moment in investing. This epiphany is what helped Dalio develop the unmatched asset allocation strategy he uses in his investment portfolios (emphasis is mine):  From my earlier failures, I knew that no matter how confident I was in making anyone […]

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The Distribution Of Returns The Randomness Embedded In Them (Daily Speculations)

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily except for some days when I don’t. As traders, one of the most important traits we can adopt is humility. We have to embrace our fallibility. Markets are complex systems. We cannot know all the relevant variables and causal relationships. Therefore, when we make a market prediction or place a trade, we can’t truly know if the subsequent outcome occurred […]

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Samurai, Livermore, and Market Timeframes (Daily Speculations)

Daily Speculations are just a post for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from one of one of the weekly market Briefs I write each week for members of the Collective. I wrote this one last year some time. It’s about Samurais, Livermore and market timing, obviously.  Enjoy. There is timing in the whole life of the warrior, in […]

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Dr. Dre and SiFy (Macro Musings)

Alex here with this week’s Macro Musings. As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group. Our Recent Articles — The Best Trading Podcasts For Global Macro Investors: The list of podcasts we listen to each month. We’ve got both process and news/commentary listed. If you have any suggestions, be sure to list them in the comments! Articles I’m reading — I loved this piece in the New Yorker where a guy recounts his experience as an investor in the money burning pit that is […]

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The Best Trading Podcasts For Global Macro Investors

These days we’re flooded with information with barely enough time to digest it all. To help solve this, our team at Macro Ops tunes into trading podcasts. With trading podcasts, all those hours you spend driving, doing chores, or working out can also be used to catch up on markets and learn something new. Below you’ll find a list of podcasts we listen to on a monthly basis to keep our game sharp. We’ve separated them into two categories — process based and news/commentary/narrative based. The process based podcasts help us develop our macro trading strategies while the commentary helps […]

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The Wealth S-Curve That’s Driving Current Global Macro Trends

The graph above shows a logistic function that maps out a sigmoid curve… otherwise known as an S-curve. This function was popularized by mid-19th century scientist Pierre Francois Verhulst who applied it in his study of population growth. Verhulst found that population growth follows a certain S-curve. It grows at a steady state until it hits a certain point where it grows exponentially. This exponential growth sustains until the system hits a saturation point where it slows and eventually stops. The S-curve is one of those strange universal laws that shows up all over the place. Similar to how power […]

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Separating Signal From Noise In Markets

There’s not much information to get. The most important variables in global macro are the economic conditions and how central banks respond to those conditions. To get that information, I read the paper, look at the data, watch what the officials say, and try to read between the lines. From an actual trade point of view, it’s price action that determines when and where to put on a trade. Otherwise, there’s a huge amount of noise in the world. Other people’s opinions are irrelevant. I can’t bear talking to salespeople because all they want to do is tell you something […]

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A.I. Bets & All-Time Low Bond Volatility (Macro Musings)

Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings. Just a reminder, we’re releasing the newest issue of our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR) early next week. In it we’re covering a basket of agricultural stocks that are ready to rip just like our IPI play (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, read our article below). Phase 3, the Overheat Phase, is a target rich environment. There’s a lot of profits to be made. If you’d like to come along for the ride, make sure you subscribe to the MIR by clicking here. Our Recent Articles — The Overheat Phase: We […]

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