It’s Over

French elections are over. The Populist hydra has been slain (for now) and the world has taken a step back from a repeat of pre-WW2 political turmoil. Center globalist Macron bulldozed the “French Trump”, winning 66.1% of the vote. Macron did very well among the rich and educated white collar demographic. Le Pen on the other hand attracted the blue collar, less “sophisticated” rural working class. In essence, the vote was a battle between the “haves” and “have nots”. If you’re doing well in life, you don’t want Le Pen rocking the boat. But if you’re out of work and […]

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Europe’s Big Test

A large impetus to the next thrust higher in European equities will be the final round of French elections this Sunday. We’ve covered the rise of populism and how it affects markets for some time now…   If Macron should win Sunday, as we expect, the populist threat will likely recede for the time being. The next contentious European election is Italy’s. But that’s not until the middle of next year. The Eurozone should be safe until then. As we discussed in last month’s Macro Intelligence Report (MIR), the populist movement is cyclic with a tendency to swing back down […]

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Liquidity: The Most Important Fundamental

I’m sure you’ve heard analysts, financial pundits, and other babbling heads yabber on and on about how these markets don’t reflect the “fundamentals”. They’ve ranted non-stop about how the fundamentals prove that a bear market is around the corner. They’ve raved about valuations being stretched and how stocks will collapse any day now… If you’ve been taking investment advice from these doomsdayers, then please accept my condolences for your portfolio loss. These broken clocks should heed the words of Mark Twain: Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt. No, denial is not just a river in Egypt, it’s also the […]

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Le Pen Is The Last Thing Standing Between Equity Bulls And The Promised Land

The Trump-flation narrative has driven U.S. stocks to valuations last seen in the tech bubble. On a relative value basis, Europe is a bit more appealing. As a result, hedge funds have been increasing their equity exposure to Europe since early 2017. The Fed is also in the middle of a rate hiking cycle while the ECB remains 40 basis points south of zero. The easy money is overseas. Plus there’s a record gap between U.S. and European EPS. U.S. earnings have always been larger than their European counterparts, but never by 53%…   Given those facts, it’s easy to […]

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Welcome To Macro Ops

Alex here. Our team has 3 primary directives: Assist you in reaping profits from global markets Train you in the art of market speculation Provide you with a solid community of diehard traders and investors Directive #1: Assist You In Profiting From Global Markets We’re global macro traders. That means we go anywhere and trade anything. Stocks, futures, bonds, currencies, foreign, domestic… it doesn’t matter. If there’s positive asymmetry, we’re there. The goal is outsized profits for you and the rest of our team. Let’s get you briefed on the current investment theme we’re tracking: Populism and Europe’s False Trend. […]

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Lessons From A Trading Great: Amos Hostetter

Amos Hostetter cofounded Commodities Corporation (otherwise known as CC) along with Helmut Weymar back in 1969. CC is the trading shop that produced more legendary trading talent than the Yankees have All-Stars. Alumni include: Bruce Kovner, Michael Marcus, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota and more… Hostetter was considered the wise sage and mentor of the group. He’s credited with imbuing many of these trading greats with the wisdom and knowledge they used to achieve their grand heights. Upon his untimely death in a car accident in 1977, the directors of CC commissioned one of their traders, Morris Markovitz, to gather […]

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Profiting From French Election Volatility

Attempting to predict the outcome of an election is a fool’s errand — we don’t bother with it. But that doesn’t mean we can’t make money off the vote… Over the last few weeks we’ve discussed the reasons for the rise of populism and how it’s impacted the false trend in European equities. We explained how these Soros-style false moves are dependent on narrative “tests” that either strengthen the trend or reverse it. In Europe’s case, its narrative test is arriving in the form of French elections. This year’s elections are pivotal because the French are dangerously close to electing […]

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Donald Trump: The Embodiment Of Trading Greatness

Paul Tudor Jones, Bruce Kovner, Jesse Livermore… forget about em. The only name you need to know when it comes to trading greatness is Donald Trump. He’s everything a trader should aspire to be. When it comes to having “strong opinions, weakly held”, Trump has EXTREMELY strong opinions, EXTREMELY weakly held. At the beginning of his campaign, The Donald was 2000% sure that China was a currency manipulator. But after a single piece of chocolate cake with his new buddy Xi, China was a problem no more. In fact, that piece of cake was SO good that Trump is now […]

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Do Buyers Of Options Benefit From High Volatility?

Search “options and volatility” in Google and you’ll get a dozen websites that say the same thing: option buyers want high volatility and option sellers want low volatility. Oddly enough, this old and relied upon rule of thumb isn’t completely correct. In reality, as an option trade plays out, trend has a far more powerful effect than volatility on final P&L. There are four scenarios that can occur before an option expires: Low Vol, Low Trend Low Vol, High Trend High Vol, Low Trend High Vol, High Trend The charts below illustrate the P&L of a long put in each […]

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James R. Keene — The Man Jesse Livermore Called The Greatest Trader Of Them All

While digging into old articles about James R. Keene for a piece I’m writing I came across this nugget that I have to share — it’s so good. For those of you not familiar with Keene, he is one of the most successful market operators of the late 19th century. Jesse Livermore, when talking about the trading legends of his day, called Keene the “greatest of them all”. The man made and lost fortunes many times over and lived a life full of color. Here’s the article, written by Robertus Love in The Princeton Union on July 11, 1907. Enjoy… […]

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