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Retail Sales: When The Government “Goal-Seeks” Economic Reports

The headline retail sales report, released today by the Census Bureau, showed a rather unexpectedly large 0.8% jump from October.  The Wall Street brain trust was expecting a 0.3% increase.   Of course, 99% of stock market investors and 100% of the financial media never looks at the details below the headline reports.   To do this, one has make an effort to scroll down to page four of the report.  There you will find this table (excerpt): You’ll note that I highlighted this “(*)” in yellow. From the footnotes to the report, this “(*)” means this: “Advance estimates are not available […]

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For Clues On The Economy, Follow The Money

“There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly built into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.” –Jesse Livermore The profitability of lending/investing money is a function of both the rate of return on the money loaned/invested and the return (payback) of the money. The historically low interest rates are squeezing lenders by driving the rate of return on the loan […]

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The Paper Gold Price Attack Cycle Is Almost Over

As students of the gold market know, the paper gold markets in New York and London function as price manipulation mechanisms used by the western Central Banks in their effort to control the price of gold. As the physical demand from the eastern hemisphere pushes the price higher, the operators of the LBMA and Comex print large quantities of paper gold (gold futures, forwards) in order to satisfy the demand of hedge funds, which use futures to chase price momentum (up and down) in gold and silver. Gold had been trading in a sideways pattern since mid-September between $ 1320 […]

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Mount Vesuvius Anyone?

“In the face of a shock, investors may be surprised to find themselves jammed running for the exit.” That quote is from Paul Tudor Jones, who was one of the pioneers of the modern hedge fund and is considered a brilliant investor and trader. He went on to say that things are “on the verge of a significant change” and that the current market reminds him of 1999. The current market reminds me of the demise of Pompeii, which was destroyed by the massive volcanic eruption of Mt Vesuvius in 79 AD. Pompeii was a prosperous city of the Roman […]

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Overstock.com: A Dumpster Fire Waiting To Happen

Overstock.com stock price has run from $ 15.95 on August 2nd this year to a 12-year high of $ 65.70. If closed Monday this week at $ 46.10. The incredulous run-up in OSTK was ignited when OSTK decided to grab onto the coattails of the cryptocurrency mania. The company announced on August 8th that it would begin to allow shoppers to pay with Bitcoin and other cryptos. Then in October, OSTK announced that its tZero subsidiary would, along with two JV partners, launch an alternative trading system for ICO-issued crypto-coins. The announcement further fueled OSTK’s remarkable stock move since August. […]

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The War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays The Elitists’ Panic And Coming Defeat – Part 2

Here is Part 2 of Stewart Dougherty’s “War on Gold” essay.  Here’s Part 1 Magicians use distraction, deflection and misdirection to conduct their tricks. They get their audiences to look to the left while they perform their magic undetected on the right. So do con artists and swindlers. George H. W. Bush, in a speech delivered to a joint session of Congress on 11 September 1990 entitled “Toward a New World Order,” headlined a geopolitical theme that has garnered a great deal of attention ever since. And while Bush was not the first person to use the term, it struck […]

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The War on Gold Intensifies: It Betrays The Elitists’ Panic And Coming Defeat – Part 1

IRD is honored to present another guest post from Stewart Dougherty Dictatorship (noun):  Definition #3:   absolute power or authority (Websters); Def. #2:   absolute, imperious or overbearing power or control (Random House); Def. #3:   Absolute or despotic control or power (American Heritage); Def. #3:  Absolute or supreme power or authority (Collins English Dictionary); Def. #1:  A type of government where absolute sovereignty is allotted to an individual or small clique (Wikipedia). “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained, […]

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The Truth Behind Amazon’s Reported Earnings

This article below is from my Seeking Alpha post earlier this week.  I’ve studied AMZN’s financials and business model for several years. I’m probably one of the few analysts who bothers to scour the footnotes of AMZN’s financials. I was taught by the best at University of Chicago to start with the footnotes and work “up” when pulling apart GAAP financial statements.  I can say with 100% certainty that the “Free Cash Flow” that Jeff Bezos promotes with ardent zeal is a fictional number, if not fraud.  The SEC looks the other way.  Suffice it to say that AMZN’s true […]

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Bitcoin’s Inconvenient Truths: The Silence Is Deafening

Gold is instantly and optically recognizable as money. You don’t have to explain it. Bitcoin and Special Drawing Rights (SDR), like a bad joke, have to be explained. Many “cryptologitsts” from the start gave up trying to explain Bitcoin and just sell it as virtual gold, which is de facto fake gold.  – Dan Popescu, investment consultant Numerous inconvenient truths are conveniently ignored by Bitcoin/crypto-currency promoters.  Not the least of which is that the fact that the original concept for cryptographic currency was envisioned by the NSA.   I guess it’s convenient to assume the NSA developed this concept and then […]

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The Debt Bubble Is Beginning To Leak Air

“The current state of credit card delinquency flows can be an early indicator of future trends and we will closely monitor the degree to which this uptick is predictive of further consumer distress.” – New York Fed official in reference to rising delinquency rate of credit cards. The recent sell-off in junk bonds likely reflects a growing uneasiness in the market with credit risk, where “credit risk” is defined as the probability that a borrower will be able to make debt payments. This past week SocGen’s macro strategist, Albert Edwards, issued a warning that the falling prices of junk bonds might be “the […]

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