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Can We Make Sound Financial Decisions Anymore?

I. Hate. Central. Banks. Loathe them. They’ve hijacked our economy and the markets and taken away all our power to make sound financial, investment, and business decisions. Sure, you’ve got to hand it to them: they pulled us away from a depression, thanks to their trillions in stimulus. I mean, QE has had a huge impact on the economy. Two percent growth isn’t great, but it’s a hell of a lot better than a depression. But in the process, they’ve separated the economy and markets from any fundamentals. There’s no rhyme or reason why the markets should be as high […]

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This Could Crash 95% This Year

There are two types of stock bubbles – normal stock bubbles of five years or so and shorter-term, more extreme bubbles – and we’re currently in the midst of both kinds. Both are characterized by irrational behavior… A complete break from any fundamentals. On Thursday, I’ll talk more on Thursday about how this is the case with the stock bubble. But today, let’s compare the cryptocurrency bubble to five other quick-and-nasty bubbles that have wiped out investors in the past. I’m talking, of course, about the tulip bubble, the South Sea and Mississippi bubbles, the internet bubble, and the recent […]

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January is a Critical Month for Markets

For more than three decades, my grasp of economic and business fundamentals, demographics, and cycles has allowed me to empower my readers… to let them see ahead of the curve and prepare for booms and busts in the economy, the business cycle, and stock markets long before their peers. Then something happened that I never believed could happen… In 2008, when the Economic Winter Season began to take its toll, Central banks stepped up and printed trillions upon trillions of dollars. Because of the deflationary cycle we should have been experiencing since 2008, their efforts have had a muted effect […]

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Is Stimulus Responsible for the Recent Improved Trends in the U.S. and Japan?

Maybe. Since central banks began their B.S. back in 2001, when the Bank of Japan first began Quantitative Easing efforts, I’ve warned that it wouldn’t be enough… that none of them would be able to commit to the vast sums of money they’d ultimately need to prevent the Economic Winter Season – and its accompanying deflation – from rolling over us. Demographics and numerous other cycles, in my studied opinion, would ultimately overwhelm central bank efforts. Well, $ 12 trillion later – after the U.S. and Europe jumped on the QE bandwagon in early 2009 – I have to admit […]

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6 Reasons to Bet on the U.S. Dollar in 2018

I love the gold bugs! They’re steadfast in warning that you can’t live on perpetually-expanding debt… or money printing… or zero interest policies. Mainstream economists have been lulled into believing such things don’t have serious consequences, while history clearly says otherwise. Gold bugs aren’t fooled. But that’s where my love for gold bugs ends. They have two fatal failings. The first is that they believe gold is always a storehouse of value… and mostly in inflationary times like the 1970s. It is NOT outside of such strong inflationary periods, as I’ve explained in numerous previous issues of Boom & Bust, The Leading […]

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Bitcoin Isn’t the Bubble It’s the Pin!

I wish I could take credit for that perfect description of Bitcoin, but I can’t. That goes to JP Research. This Bitcoin bubble will be the “pin” that bursts the more widespread bubble, just like the Nasdaq bubble burst the markets back in the early 2000s. I wrote about this twice last week, showing you how the Bitcoin bubble compares to the internet bubble, and how much Bitcoin could potentially lose when the burst happens. Then, last Friday, I took to Facebook with this video, elaborating more on the Bitcoin situation. I explain why Bitcoin could make one more new-high […]

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Bitcoin’s Downside: Know the Risk Before You Plunge In

On Tuesday, I showed you how the bitcoin bubble looks a lot like the internet bubble that inflated in the final phase – the orgasm – of the great tech bubble of December 1994 into March 2000. It crashed faster and harder than the Nasdaq bubble – down 93% compared to 78%. It was also a leading indicator for the Nasdaq crash as it only retested its January high rather than exceeding it. The internet bubble went up 7.5 times in just 16 months. At close to $ 20,000, Bitcoin has gone up 14.8 times in just eight months. That’s […]

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Looks Just Like the Late Stage Internet Bubble into 2000

Cycles reoccur throughout history, but they more rhyme than duplicate. Each bubble tends to get more extreme than the last one because there’s more wealth to chase it. Wealth is concentrated in the top 1% to 0.1% and grows exponentially (income does not). The greatest bubble of our lifetimes was the tech bubble in the Nasdaq from late 1994 into early 2000. That built over a period of five years – the typical time frame for most stock bubbles. This current bubble, from 2011 to present day is an anomaly. This Fed and global central bank bubble has been totally […]

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The Republican Party Is Imploding

It finally looks like the Republican party and Donald Trump may get its first victory if the tax reform bill that just passed the Senate gets through the House without too much compromise… But that would be missing the bigger picture. First, I was warning back in 2016 that whoever won the presidential election would end up wishing they had not. This bubble has been extended to much greater heights and can only stretch so far without destroying itself through its own extremes and imbalances. My four fundamental long-term indicators – the Generational Spending Wave, the Geopolitical Cycle, the Technology/Innovation […]

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The Blue and Red Split Continues to Widen, Especially after Trump

In our November 2016 issue of Boom & Bust, I looked at the extensive Pew Research report on the growing political polarization in the U.S. It was election time and the country was torn in two. The key chart I shared showed that the difference between the median republican and the median democrat had grown from 17% in 2004 to 33% in 2014 – doubling in just 10 years. The difference between the most politically engaged was a whopping 55%! Well, recently Pew has updated this research and the results show that the polarization is just getting more extreme. Now […]

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