Bitcoin and Blockchain: Hype or Fundamental Financial Revolution?

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO, says Bitcoin is a fraud – likening it to the 17th century tulip bubble – that will eventually blow up. He said he’d fire any trader who traded it. Ron Insana, CNBC contributor, says Bitcoin is in a bubble, with investor enthusiasm driving it to a new fever pitch. He’s cited several reasons why it will fail. Are they right? Is Bitcoin a modern-day tulip bubble leading greedy investors to the slaughter? Well… yes AND no. It’s complicated (which is why I’ve invited Bitcoin expert, Michael Terpin, to speak at our Irrational Economic Summit this October […]

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“Reports of My Death Have NOT Been Greatly Exaggerated!” Regards, Retail

The retail apocalypse coming to a mall near you Is this retail apocalypse you’ve been hearing so much about a reality? Is this really the end for the American shopping mall? Yes! And it’s going to get worse, but I want you to see why it was totally predictable. In fact, just like we forecast that Harley Davidson would suffer, so too did we forecast that retail stores would take a hit with the predictability of spending waves! Yes, the retail, brick-and-mortar, industry is suffering because there are too many stores, online shopping is growing exponentially and shoppers are “moving […]

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The Future of the U.S. (And the World)

Predictability. People. Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics. It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts that I’d laid out on my desk. I’d been looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation when I glanced up and spotted the Baby Boomer’s birth wave. I was confused for a second. They looked identical. So, I laid the one page on top of the other, moved the demographic chart to the right by about 45 years, and they were a match! I immediately knew why, […]

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Its Second Demographics D-Day Is Coming

D-Day. Demographic death day. Maybe not as bloody as the battlefield in Normandy but equally as devastating in the long term. And Japan is facing its second one. Japan’s Baby Boom started to slow down in 1942 coming into World War II and peaked – forever – in 1949 after soldiers came home from war and made a lot of babies. It was the first major developed country to peak on a 47-year lag for spending in its economy. The effects of that first drop-off in births during WWII hit the country after 1989. The second, bigger hit arrived in […]

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This Emperor Has No Clothes

First, we have to realize that the North Korean regime is so embedded with its propaganda that it enjoys a religious reverence, despite its extremely poor populace. South Korea right next door is 20 times richer, yet… It has survived 70 years, longer than any top-down regime in the communist world. But it has an “Achilles’ Heel.” The country’s demographics aren’t as bad as those of Russia… But they’re still bad enough to make them desperate on top of their extremely low GDP per capita. How long can you keep the “bad dream” going? The Soviet Union started to fail […]

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Extreme Racism and Divisiveness Today: Real-Life Macro and Micro Solutions

As a new generation emerges into the workforce, it brings with it revolution, be it technological, social, or political. They have fresh new ideas and their own, unique values, which grow to dominate as the older generation filters into retirement. That’s part of what’s going on today in America, where extreme divisiveness and racial stresses threaten to tear us apart. (Another part is that this is all part of a larger 250-Year Revolutionary Cycle, and an 84-Year Populist Movement Cycle, to name just two.) The last time we experienced such tensions was from the late 1950s into the 1970s, right […]

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Could Yesterday’s Total Eclipse Mark a Major Turning Point?

Were you one of the lucky ones able to witness the total eclipse yesterday, as it moved on its west to east path across the middle of the U.S.? Whether you did or not, there’s probably something about this event that you HAVEN’T heard… My friend Andrew Pancholi, cycle whiz from London and creator of the Market Timing Report, recently told me that yesterday’s path of totality across the U.S. looked eerily similar to the one that occurred at the beginning of the Civil War… and that this could signal America as the starting point to broader civil wars and political restructurings around the […]

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Why Trump Won & The Peak of Globalization

Fareed Zakaria just put out a special show on why Trump won: He got the rural white vote in unprecedented margins – like 80% plus. Even before Election Day, we put out an infographic explaining why Trump could win despite the polls. Still, even I was a little surprised when he won! I bring this up again now, not to bash Trump, but to highlight the demographic and cyclical explanation behind his victory. And to show that the events that brought Trump into power aren’t done stirring things up. There’s a lot more to come. Trump is only the beginning… […]

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The Shocking Truth About Russia

The Russian drama seems to intensify with each passing hour. I certainly have my opinion on the matter, as, no doubt, do you. But it’s not my opinion that I want to share with you today. Instead, I want to share two charts that may well shed new light on recent events… Here’s the first. I warn you, it’s shocking. As you can see, Russia’s workforce growth rolled over around 2010 and now faces one of the steepest collapses I’ve seen in any country! Demographically speaking, Russia is up the creek without a paddle. It’s already experiencing tremendous economic pain […]

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Why We’re Headed Toward Gold $700 by 2018

Investors are fleeing to gold in a desperate attempt to weather the recent market volatility… but is this long time “safe-haven” actually poised to collapse wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth in the process? While many economists will argue that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $ 2,000, $ 5,000 and even $ 10,000, my research has said otherwise. I’ve never been more certain of anything in over 30 years of economic forecasting. Market volatility, worries over the Europe Central Bank, negative interest rates, and China are among a laundry list of events […]

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