Which States Are Growing Fastest?

One of the buzzwords since Trump became president is “growth.” He’s made ridiculous promises about economic growth that he can’t possibly make good on.

But let’s take a look at another type of growth that affects us all: population growth, specifically in the continental U.S.

It should be no surprise that very high-cost states like New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, California, and Hawaii are NOT growing very fast.

Southern Florida isn’t growing as fast as the northern half due to higher costs of living.

And people generally tend to move away from colder Northeastern and Midwestern states to the warmer Southeast and Southwest.

But, that doesn’t mean that all warm states are growing like gangbusters… or that all cold states aren’t.

Here’s the map that summarizes growth by state for July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017…

As you can see, Idaho is growing the fastest, at 2.20% annualized.

The other top 10 also include:

  • Nevada, 2.00%;
  • Utah, 1.89%;
  • Washington State, 1.71%;
  • Florida, 1.59%;
  • Arizona, 1.56%;
  • Texas, 1.43%;
  • Colorado, 1.39%,
  • Oregon, 1.39%; and
  • South Carolina at 1.30%.

I would have thought Texas and North Carolina would have been higher. Washington State also surprised on the upside as Seattle is becoming Silicon Valley 2.0.

Nine states, ranging from Wyoming to Connecticut, have negative growth rates. Mississippi and Louisiana are negative, despite being in the South. New Mexico is also surprisingly low, being surrounded by four high-growth states.

Where you live will affect business growth and real estate values. So, consider that, especially if you’re retiring. Idaho, Nevada, Washington, Florida, and Arizona look like the best places to go to me.


P.S. We’ll continue this demographics discussion next week when we take a look births over deaths. Did you know that Utah leads natural population growth in the U.S. due to high births while sucks wind with so many retirees? And later in the month we’ll look at international immigration trends that are favoring states like Florida. Stay tuned.

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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

Guess Where Crypto Utopia is Being Built

Some of the wealthiest, smartest people in the cryptocurrency sector have realized that the territory is a very attractive place to create Crypto Utopia… so that’s what they’re doing.

They’ve taken over an old hotel in old San Juan and they’re out hunting for swaths of land. They have plans to build their own city and open their own crypto bank!

I tell you why and what this means to you in my latest video, which you can watch now.

I also give you details of two huge crypto conferences taking place in Puerto Rico in March. One is called Puerto Crypto (www.puertocrypto.com), which runs from March 14 to 16. The other is Coin Agenda Caribbean (www.coinagenda.com), from March 17 to 19, which Michael Terpin is organizing. Michael is working with us to create the cryptocurrency course to surpass all cryptocurrency courses, called Crypto Mastery Series. We’ll share details when it’s ready, so stay on the lookout for that.

In the meantime, watch my latest video now to understand why Crypto Utopia is coming to Puerto Rico.



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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

Could Gold’s Day in the Sun Be Upon Us?

After last week’s market shake up, the questions of “what happened” and “what next” is definitely on all of our minds here at Dent Research. I’ve no doubt it’s on your mind too.

The biggest question everyone’s trying to answer: Is this the end of the bull market?

I still think that January 26 looks like a top, with its parabolic nature, but thanks to one technical indicator in particular, I have some idea of what might come next…

Yesterday, I emailed to say that I believe we’re seeing Rising Bearish Wedge Scenario Type 2 unfolding right now. The markets tested the bottom trend line three times last week on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday – yet still managed to rally even after a clearer break on Friday. Now, it’s likely that markets will move up somewhat and then mostly sideways for a while… then they’ll retest and finally break the critical bottom wedge trend-line in the weeks ahead. Then we could be down 40% from the top in a matter of a few months. But we need to convincingly break that down trend line. And Friday was obviously not enough, despite a clear break, which makes me suspect that the Federal Reserve stepped in and bought stocks to support the market as China’s government did in late 2015.

John Del Vecchio, our resident forensic accountant, and Charles Sizemore, our Boom & Bust portfolio manager, both agree.

In his most recent Economy & Markets article, appropriately titled “What the @#$ ! Just Happened?!”, John explained why he doesn’t think last week’s market action is the start of a bear market just yet.

Understand, John is possibly more bearish than I am right now! Still, he has good reasons for believing that the recent market action related more to the short volatility trade than a market event that could take down stocks to major bear market levels.

Charles expressed a similar view in his latest Economy & Markets article entitled “It’s Not Time to Go Bargain-Shopping Just Yet.” As he says, “Expensive markets can always get a lot more expensive in the short-term, particularly when the economy is strong as it is today.”

It may not be time to go bargain shopping just yet, but there is an opportunity you can take advantage of now. Adam O’Dell, our Chief Investment Strategist, uncovered it recently, and it’s something I have been seeing in an uptrend for a while now. I’ll let him give you the details below.

In short: now’s a good time to buy gold!

But, before I hand you over to Adam, I want to make very clear that I’m still bearish on gold in the medium term.

I still firmly believe that gold prices could slide to as low as $ 700 an ounce between now and 2020. When the commodity cycle turns around, gold will regain its former glory and then some. But, that’s still years away.

Gold is an inflation hedge. I expect deflation to grip the world in the coming years. That’s the biggest mistake that gold bugs make. They think gold is a crisis hedge. It’s not. I detail this and more – in fact, I lay out my full case for gold $ 700 – in my eBook, How to Survive and Thrive During the Great Gold Bust Ahead.

However, the key to Adam’s recommendation below is that it’s a short-term play. I have been saying for many months that gold was due for a bear market bounce up to a range of $ 1,375 minimum to $ 1,428 maximum. There are clearly inflationary fears in the market now, and Adam intends to take advantage. Here’s what he has to say…

Gold’s Day in the Sun?

I usually warn against reading too much into the financial media’s (backward-looking) explanation of a market move that just happened.

But it really does seem that everyone’s suddenly worried about interest rates moving too high, too quickly.

We all knew rates had to go higher. The Fed drove them to the floor, kept them pinned there for years and then, in 2013 (remember the “Taper Tantrum?”) began talking about the beginning of the end of their zero-interest rate policy (aka “ZIRP”).

Inflation and a one-way train of higher rates have been brewing concerns for years now. But until February 2, when wage growth came in hotter than expected, these concerns hadn’t been enough to spur a sea change in investor behavior.

Now, though, everyone’s panicked.

Yesterday, the 10-year Treasury rate hit a high of 2.88%. That’s as high as it’s been since, well, the height of the Taper Tantrum in late 2013.

The market has absorbed five solid years of concern over a future with higher interest rates, inflation… and yes, potentially even the hyperinflation that gold bugs are infamously on guard against.

And then on February 2, it’s as if the market just couldn’t absorb an ounce more. Alongside that wage growth report, interest rates leapt higher and bond prices sank sharply lower.

Realize though, inflation concerns aren’t contained to the bond market.

Utilities stocks are more than 15% off their highs and lagging every other U.S. stock sector – a tell-tale sign of concern about inflation ahead.

And the real estate sector is now off more than 20%, entering an official “bear market” during last week’s swoon.

The bottom line is: everything that’s sensitive to higher interest rates is getting dumped.

And gold prices looked primed for a rally.

It’s been a rough road for gold bugs since the mid-2011 peak in precious metals.

Gold prices have steadily trended lower, in the classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

But that five-year trend has already turned and gold prices are currently in an uptrend.

The turn began in 2016, when gold (GLD) gained around 30% by July. That move was “too far, too fast” and the excess was slowly worked off into early 2017.

But gold never made lower lows. Instead, it began to establish a new bullish trend – marked by higher highs and higher lows.

This was a newly-budding and still-risky trend until last week’s sharp sell-off in stocks and bonds. Alongside the loss of confidence in paper assets – stocks and bonds alike – gold prices are up.

There’s no way to know just yet if last week’s swoon was the beginning of the end for stocks.

But investors are scared!

Scared of bubbles in overvalued paper assets – from stocks to bitcoin. And scared of higher interest rates, inflation, and maybe even hyperinflation.

If we’re in the midst of a “topping process” for stocks, gold prices should rally through that process and awhile longer.

Shares of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) gained 18% and 26% in the first three and six months of the 07/08 top that began in October 2007.

In short, gold is almost always a top-performer during the topping process of an aged bull market.

Combine that with the now-palpable concerns over inflation and higher interest rates and it’s clear: it’s a great time to make a bullish play on gold!

Buying shares of GLD is an easy way to add a little exposure.

Or you can click here to see the gold recommendation I gave to Cycle 9 Alert subscribers on Tuesday, February 13.

Adam O’Dell
Editor, Cycle 9 Alert


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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

Which of These Two Patterns is Unfolding Now?

Last week, markets fell out of bed. Yesterday, they got up and dusted themselves off.

I’ve been warning for months now that U.S. markets are in a rising bearish wedge. This pattern tends to be the last move in a long bull market.

Stocks go up in a last orgasmic move in a narrowing channel – or wedge – with little volatility. And then, suddenly, the music stops.

It was thanks to me identifying this wedge that I called the May 2013 top in the junk bond market – to the day!

It was also present at many of the great bubbles in our lifetime…

The Nikkei in 1989.

The Nasdaq in 2000.

Gold in 2011.

Each one peaked in rising bearish wedges.

But there’s something even better that this technical pattern enables us to do…

With this pattern, we can see predictable points to exit the market, on the high end… and we get a second chance to get out at the point of break-down, not too far off the top.

But, as with any technical pattern, there’s some art is reading that situation. With rising bearish wedges, there are two scenarios that could unfold…

In Scenario #1, we advance in a rising wedge in a 5-wave up pattern (using Elliott Wave methodology): a-up, b-down, c-up, d-down, and then a final e-wave peak right at or just slightly above the top of the rising wedge.

The infamous 1925-1929 bubble and top occurred this way.

As with junk bonds in 2013, when the market stays within the rising wedge, and when tests the bottom trend-line, it tends to crash right through because the trend is more obvious to traders who drive the markets.

This was also the case with Australia’s ASX 200 bubble into late 2017, and its eventual burst (see you soon Australian readers!).

In Scenario #2, which is unfolding right before our eyes in the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500, we get a “throw-over” rally above the top trend line of the rising wedge, which makes it even more parabolic, and hence, more toppy and bearish.

This is what happened in the Nikkei in 1989, the Nasdaq into 2000, and the Shanghai Composite into late 2007.

Either way, once the crash is confirmed, markets lose more than 40% in the first 2.5 months and 80% two or three years later.

Last week, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq tested the bottom trend-line of their respective rising bearish wedges three times. Yet each time they rallied back.

On Friday, they broke through that line clearly, but briefly.

Yesterday, they came roaring back.

Based on my study of past rising bearish wedges, and how Scenario #2 typically plays out, it’s likely that markets will move up somewhat and then mostly sideways for a while… then they’ll retest the trend lines… and finally break the critical bottom wedge trend-line in the weeks ahead.

Yesterday, I told Boom & Bust subscribers what to look out for, and what levels on the major indices to take note of. If you’re not already a member, now’s the best time to join.

Follow Me on Twitter @harrydentjr

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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

How Do We Stop the Insanity?

Nine years of QE…

Near zero interest rates…

When the effects of those started to fizzle out, we got tax cuts…

Now, the new spending bill will add $ 300 BILLION to the deficit.

This. Is. Insanity!

We’re already running $ 500 billion deficits each year, and these are good times.

What’s going to happen when times turn bad?

I’ll tell you in my latest Facebook video…

Follow Me on Twitter @harrydentjr

Chart of the Day

MLPs are a Steal Relative to Bonds

In case you haven’t noticed, it’s gotten ugly out there.

Volatility in the bond market has spilled over into the stock market, and the shares of anything “income oriented” have gotten absolutely slammed.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) – long popular among income investors for their high yields – are down 7% in 2018, even while the S&P 500 is still up 3%. Mortgage REITs, business development companies, preferred stock, closed-end bond funds… all are sitting on losses year to date.

This is what you might expect in a bond-market correction.

When bond yields rise, bond prices fall… and so do the prices of virtually anything that pays a significant yield.

In the low-interest-rate world we’ve lived in since 2008, investors have been reaching for yield in the pockets of the stock market that most resemble bonds. So, as goes the bond market, so go the high-yield pockets of the stock market.

Harry expects bond yields to go a little higher before reversing again in what he calls the fixed-income trade of the decade. But already, we’re starting to see some pockets of real value.

Today, master limited partnerships (MLPs) – which tend to hold oil and gas pipelines with bond-like cash flows – are trading at some of their cheapest prices relative to bonds in history.

Prior to the 2008 meltdown, the MLP sector yielded about 5.5%, which was less than half a percent higher than the 10-year Treasury. That spread briefly shot up to greater than 10% during the meltdown and again briefly shot up to nearly 8% during the 2015 crude-oil rout. But for most of the asset class’s history, MLPs have traded at a spread of 2% to 4% over the 10-Year Treasury.

Well, that spread has now ballooned to over 5% again.

So, come what may in the bond market, MLPs are looking attractive.

Charles Sizemore

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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

What the Hell Just Happened?

After what happened the stock and cryptocurrency markets the last few days, it feels like this week should be over.

It’s been a crazy ride!

Talk about whipsaws!

And it’s only Wednesday.

Yesterday, I sent you an email explaining how stocks were at a critical point when markets opened. I followed up with a video note on Facebook.

I also did a telephone interview with Varney & Co, in which I explained that I think this might be the beginning of a much bigger correction (especially because we’ve broken below the resistance level on several of those rising bearish wedges I talked about in the January Leading Edge and this Economy & Markets).

That doesn’t mean I think it’s a straight road to the bottom from here. Listen to what I told Varney. I explain what I think we’ll see next.

I’ve been in close contact with the rest of our team, getting their take of what happened the last few days…

Rodney, editor of Triple Play Strategy and Dent Cornerstone Portfolio, suspects much of the major sell off on Monday was a result of trading algorithms kicking in and stop losses being triggered.

Charles, our Boom & Bust Portfolio Manager and editor of Peak Income and Peak Profits, said this correction has been long overdue. Whatever triggered it, it’s not unexpected. He spent the last few days letting subscribers know to get out of certain plays in the portfolio to avoid or minimize losses. Thanks to his risk management strategies, in his more conservative services, the impact of the correction was limited to lightening the number of stocks in his model portfolios. There have been a few losses, but they’ve been mostly contained to the stop-loss limits in place!

Charles recently wrote about one of the last truly cheap pockets in the market. 2018 is stacking up to be a nasty year for bond investors. The 10-year Treasury yield has jumped from less than 2.5% to just shy of 2.9% in a matter of weeks. It’s bringing us closer to our Trade of the Decade, but if you have any 401K investments, this is likely to impact you to. Read what Charles has to say about this.

And Adam, our Chief Investment Strategist and editor of Cycle 9 Alert and 10X Profits, said that this situation is touch and go. “Most of these dips have historically been worth buying,” he said. “But that says little about THIS particular sell-off. On both Friday and Monday, around 8.5 stocks on the NYSE closed lower for every one higher. That’s an extremely bearish ‘breadth’ ratio, showing the selling is widespread and indiscriminate.”

Adam also wrote a new Economy & Markets article on why this sell-off didn’t come as a surprise. You can find that here.

Follow Me on Twitter @harrydentjr

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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

Two New Leading Indicators

There are two trends that go counter to the go-go forecasts from recent tax cuts in the U.S. – which are obviously positive, at least for the near term.

Stocks have loved this free gift from President Trump, but long-term statistics show that corporations do NOT increase capital investments when taxes fall.

They do so when the economy grows and they need more capacity, which is not the case currently at a low 75% capacity utilization. Or, they reduce such investments during recessions.

Historically, capital investments have trended at around 18% of GDP.

But back to those trends…

The first is that global quantitative easing is “easing.”

It’s been declining since March 2017. On about a 12- to 18-month lag, that would be negative for the U.S. and global economy. Look at this chart…

Note the extreme surge in QE in early 2009 forward and the strong recovery that followed… and the pullback in early 2011 that saw a slowdown in the markets into late 2011.

Also note the slowdown from the Fed in the U.S. in 2014 that saw a slowdown in the economy and stock markets into early 2016 for stocks.

Now that QE is in decline, if this indicator proves accurate, we should start to see a slowdown in the economy sometime in the first half of 2018 or the summer at the latest. Almost no one expects that and a strong expected Q1 GDP forecast will just make the growth story stronger for now.

This could mean a recession, which would mean a market crash… or just back to 2% growth and a substantial correction when 3% to 4% doesn’t materialize, as we’ve been warning it won’t.

The second trend relates to Bitcoin…

For a while now I’ve been warning that Bitcoin could be the pin that could prick this stock bubble, just like internet stocks were the pin in early 2000.

Well, it turns out there’s an approximate nine-week lag between the extreme late-stage Bitcoin bubble and the Dow.

The recent peak in Bitcoin in mid- December 2017 would suggest a potential top in stocks in mid- to late February or early March, at the latest.

So, we’ll be monitoring these indicators closely and will keep you updated.

In such an artificial bubble, inflated by nothing more than massive QE/money printing and now free-lunch tax cuts, most traditional indicators of a market top aren’t likely to manifest.

These two new indicators could give us the warning we need.

The best confirmation would be a break of the bottom trend-line in the Nasdaq in its bearish wedge that I showed on January 24. That looks to be around 6,500 ahead.

We’ll see over the next month or so, but caution is warranted in this parabolic market.


P.S. Bitcoin’s bubble is bursting, presenting us with those sale-of-a-lifetime opportunities I talk about so often. My team has found some of those opportunities specifically in the cryptocurrency space. I’ve pulled together the details for you here.

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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

Stocks at Critical Point: Testing the Bottom of Rising Bearish Wedges

Stock futures projected another big down day today for stocks, as if losing 1,150 yesterday on the Dow wasn’t enough.

This will put us at “a line in the sand” that will show whether this is just a sharp 10% correction or the first wave down of the next major bubble burst, which could see us lose another 40%-plus in the first 2.5 to 3 months – that means by late April!

That makes this an especially important point for protecting your wealth.

In the January Leading Edge and in the January 24 Economy & Markets, I looked at one of the most reliable patterns that indicate the end of major bull markets, especially bubbles. It’s called a rising bearish wedge. Stocks accelerate upward in a narrowing trend with less and less volatility, and then crash when they break through the bottom trendline.

Right now, we’re testing that bottom trend line.

Talking with my friend, Andrew Pancholi, at markettimingreport.com, he had two key turning points for this accelerating pattern to top.

The first was mid-October, which turned out to be an acceleration instead, something that happens about 10% of the time.

His next target was January 18-19 and the 25th. It looks to me like January 26 was “the top.”

On January 24, I sent you an email looking at the Nasdaq. This morning let’s look at the broader S&P 500. It looks the closest to breaking down from this pattern.

Futures were very volatile last night and this morning, with the S&P projected to open down anywhere between 39 and 72 points. It’s like a chicken running around with its head cut off.

This chart is as of yesterday’s close. Such an opening will put it right smack on the bottom trend line at 2,600 – down 49 points from yesterday – possibly just below it.

So, this is the do or die point!

For the Dow, that bottom trend line – the breaking point – is 23,600.

For the Nasdaq, it’s 6,850.

Note that all of these charts have had a classic throw-over the top, which is the most aggressive sell signal (as I explained in that January 24 Economy & Markets). The highest probability sell signal comes when it conclusively breaks through the bottom.

All of that said, the odds are the markets will bounce off this support point. If they do, the next question is: will they bounce strongly and potentially go back up to as high as the top trendline, which would be around 2,720 on the S&P 500?

If that happens, that would be the ideal sell signal, especially after such a sharp correction. The odds are now low that we would see a new high anytime time soon (at least not for decades, if that).

There have been 217 5%-plus corrections historically. When losses hit 5%, something starts to happen. Stops start getting triggered. Risk management sets in.

The average stock loss is 12%, the median is 8%. We’re going to be close to that 12% today, and right at that for the Dow.

So, what do you do now?

If you’re following one of our trading masters – Adam, Rodney, Charles, Lance, or John – stick to the system and wait for instructions from them. If you’re going it alone, then, unless we are more than 1% below the bottom trend line numbers above, and or if there is an immediate crash followed by a substantial bounce quickly, then it’s better to hold and wait to see what becomes of the rebound.

Otherwise, it’s better to be safe than sorry in your passively managed accounts.

By the way, Bitcoin has been down as much as 70% from its, pretty much assuring scenario two, which we discussed yesterday. That means Bitcoin is likely to go as low as $ 800 to $ 1,000 in the next few to several months.

I will keep you updated.

Follow Me on Twitter @harrydentjr

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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

The Bitcoin Crash Is at a Critical Point: Is This Over?

I sent this update to paid subscribers on Friday. It’s critical, so I’m sharing it here with ALL Economy & Market readers today…

On December 19, I sent an Economy & Markets email about the similarity between the internet bubble and crash and the bitcoin bubble today.

At the time, I saw two possible scenarios. Both are still viable today, but the degree of the 60% crash in Bitcoin tells me that we’re most likely experiencing scenario two, where the cryptocurrency hit its top near $ 20,000.

That doesn’t take scenario one out of the running. There’s still a remote chance that Bitcoin could surge back and break above $ 20,000, after which it would be curtains.

Neither scenario is good news for stocks (and next week I’ll reveal the new leading indicator I’ve found that shows an eight-week lag or so between Bitcoin and stock market moves… look out for that in Economy & Markets tomorrow).

For now though, here are some updated charts…

The internet bubble saw a 46% crash in 1999 before rocketing to a new high in early 2000. The Bitcoin bubble has already seen a 60% crash, which makes a new high or scenario one less likely. But it is still possible if we can hold the recent 8,800 lows at 60% down from the top.

That said, this recent crash makes scenario two look more likely, especially if it goes down further.

That scenario would see a crash down to as low as $ 800 to $ 1,000 on Bitcoin, which would be down more than 95% from the top.

That would be a signal of bubble worry for the stock market, as I will show tomorrow in Economy & Markets.

The coming weeks are critical.

Any new lows in Bitcoin would strengthen the likelihood of scenario two unfolding – that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies peaked around $ 20,000 and the stock market will follow on about an eight- to nine-week lag.

Look out for tomorrow’s email on that new leading indicator.

Follow Me on Twitter @harrydentjr

Publisher’s Note: It’s time for change. We’re shaking things up in Economy & Markets to bring you more of what you want – Harry Dent – in more accessible ways. We’d also like to improve our conversation with you, so please feel free to email us your questions, comments, criticisms, or praise. Send it all to economyandmarkets@dentresearch.com.

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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()

Gold and T-Bond Yields Rising as Expected

Three trends I’ve been forecasting have been happening in the last year:

  • The strong Trump rally.
  • Rising 10-year Treasury bond yields.
  • And rising gold prices.

They’re all related to late stage inflation and the expected tax cuts, which have materialized.

One thing that still hasn’t happened, and still doesn’t look imminent yet, is the bursting of this increasingly parabolic stock bubble.

Hard for that to happen when we’ve had the QE free lunch for so long, and now the large tax cuts to corporations.

GDP growth seems to be picking up, but not as much as expected. The fourth quarter reading came in at 2.6% instead of the expected 3.0%-plus. The full 2017 reading was 2.3%, just marginally higher than past years that have averaged 2%.

Rising growth suggests rising inflation and rising inflation means higher T-bond yields, which have already been the case as the chart shows.

I have also been warning that inflation is a lagging indicator.

The last recession saw inflation rise in the first several months – and T-Bond yields with it – before coming down into late 2008/early 2009. This is typical and comes from rising wages with tighter labor availability and rising commodity prices in the late stages of a boom.

On a related note, I’ve been expecting a substantial gold rally – but not a new bull market for the commodity – from the extreme oversold reaction into the end of 2015, when gold hit $ 1,050 from an all-time high of $ 1,934 in September 2011.

Look at this next chart…

Note that this chart is the annualized percentage change in gold to correlate with the percentage rate of inflation.

Gold is more of an inflation hedge, than a crisis hedge.

It crashed 33% in the midst of the Lehman Brothers meltdown, while silver was down 50%.

With this trend of mildly rising inflation, gold prices and T-bond yields will likely continue moving upward until there are signs of an economic slowdown and/or a bubble burst in stocks. Then deflation will set in, as occurred briefly in late 2008.

The T-Bond channel I’m watching closely has a strong resistance around 3.0% yields – which was the previous high in December 2013 – and we are getting close, at 2.73% on Monday, January 29.

If we break strongly above that, then we are in a new ball game that would be very bad for stocks and real estate.

Gold has resistance at the last major high around $ 1,375, and the high before that, at around $ 1,428, is the other strong point of resistance. That’s the range I’ve been forecasting in the last year or so.

Rising T-Bond Yields aren’t good for stock or real estate valuations. Will 3.0% start to be that point? We may find out soon enough.

I see 3.0% as the opportunity to buy long-term Treasurys (30-year are the best) to lock in higher yields and play the inevitable deflation trends ahead when this bubble finally bursts.

And I see the $ 1,375 to $ 1,400 area as the opportunity for people who didn’t get out of gold in 2011 when we warned to finally take your money and run.

Follow Me on Twitter @harrydentjr

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Harry Dent – Economy and Markets ()