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How Long Does This Bull Market Have Left?

We called this explosive Trump rally. Right after the election… After Dow futures fell 800 points overnight and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures hit their 5% limit, which halts trading, and then everything turned around and opened the day in the green – an extreme reversal on high volume… We sent an email to subscribers saying we would see a Tramp rally that would see the market gain 20% to 25%, if not more. I had been cautious up to that point, after an apparent rolling top in 2015. But Wall Street was convinced they would get another massive […]

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The Real Estate Bubble Looks Eerily Like Early 2006

We called the real estate bubble top in late 2005, just before it began to burst in early 2006. So did Jim Stack, a newsletter writer in Whitefish Montana. Now Jim has a Housing Bubble Bellwether Barometer that’s flashing a sell signal after going up 80% last year. All our alarms are going off as well. The Confidence Indicator for the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo is at its highest reading in 18 years… higher than it was in early 2006. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is now higher than the peak in early 2006, and looks like […]

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Can We Make Sound Financial Decisions Anymore?

I. Hate. Central. Banks. Loathe them. They’ve hijacked our economy and the markets and taken away all our power to make sound financial, investment, and business decisions. Sure, you’ve got to hand it to them: they pulled us away from a depression, thanks to their trillions in stimulus. I mean, QE has had a huge impact on the economy. Two percent growth isn’t great, but it’s a hell of a lot better than a depression. But in the process, they’ve separated the economy and markets from any fundamentals. There’s no rhyme or reason why the markets should be as high […]

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This Could Crash 95% This Year

There are two types of stock bubbles – normal stock bubbles of five years or so and shorter-term, more extreme bubbles – and we’re currently in the midst of both kinds. Both are characterized by irrational behavior… A complete break from any fundamentals. On Thursday, I’ll talk more on Thursday about how this is the case with the stock bubble. But today, let’s compare the cryptocurrency bubble to five other quick-and-nasty bubbles that have wiped out investors in the past. I’m talking, of course, about the tulip bubble, the South Sea and Mississippi bubbles, the internet bubble, and the recent […]

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January is a Critical Month for Markets

For more than three decades, my grasp of economic and business fundamentals, demographics, and cycles has allowed me to empower my readers… to let them see ahead of the curve and prepare for booms and busts in the economy, the business cycle, and stock markets long before their peers. Then something happened that I never believed could happen… In 2008, when the Economic Winter Season began to take its toll, Central banks stepped up and printed trillions upon trillions of dollars. Because of the deflationary cycle we should have been experiencing since 2008, their efforts have had a muted effect […]

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Is Stimulus Responsible for the Recent Improved Trends in the U.S. and Japan?

Maybe. Since central banks began their B.S. back in 2001, when the Bank of Japan first began Quantitative Easing efforts, I’ve warned that it wouldn’t be enough… that none of them would be able to commit to the vast sums of money they’d ultimately need to prevent the Economic Winter Season – and its accompanying deflation – from rolling over us. Demographics and numerous other cycles, in my studied opinion, would ultimately overwhelm central bank efforts. Well, $ 12 trillion later – after the U.S. and Europe jumped on the QE bandwagon in early 2009 – I have to admit […]

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6 Reasons to Bet on the U.S. Dollar in 2018

I love the gold bugs! They’re steadfast in warning that you can’t live on perpetually-expanding debt… or money printing… or zero interest policies. Mainstream economists have been lulled into believing such things don’t have serious consequences, while history clearly says otherwise. Gold bugs aren’t fooled. But that’s where my love for gold bugs ends. They have two fatal failings. The first is that they believe gold is always a storehouse of value… and mostly in inflationary times like the 1970s. It is NOT outside of such strong inflationary periods, as I’ve explained in numerous previous issues of Boom & Bust, The Leading […]

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Bitcoin Isn’t the Bubble It’s the Pin!

I wish I could take credit for that perfect description of Bitcoin, but I can’t. That goes to JP Research. This Bitcoin bubble will be the “pin” that bursts the more widespread bubble, just like the Nasdaq bubble burst the markets back in the early 2000s. I wrote about this twice last week, showing you how the Bitcoin bubble compares to the internet bubble, and how much Bitcoin could potentially lose when the burst happens. Then, last Friday, I took to Facebook with this video, elaborating more on the Bitcoin situation. I explain why Bitcoin could make one more new-high […]

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Bitcoin’s Downside: Know the Risk Before You Plunge In

On Tuesday, I showed you how the bitcoin bubble looks a lot like the internet bubble that inflated in the final phase – the orgasm – of the great tech bubble of December 1994 into March 2000. It crashed faster and harder than the Nasdaq bubble – down 93% compared to 78%. It was also a leading indicator for the Nasdaq crash as it only retested its January high rather than exceeding it. The internet bubble went up 7.5 times in just 16 months. At close to $ 20,000, Bitcoin has gone up 14.8 times in just eight months. That’s […]

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Looks Just Like the Late Stage Internet Bubble into 2000

Cycles reoccur throughout history, but they more rhyme than duplicate. Each bubble tends to get more extreme than the last one because there’s more wealth to chase it. Wealth is concentrated in the top 1% to 0.1% and grows exponentially (income does not). The greatest bubble of our lifetimes was the tech bubble in the Nasdaq from late 1994 into early 2000. That built over a period of five years – the typical time frame for most stock bubbles. This current bubble, from 2011 to present day is an anomaly. This Fed and global central bank bubble has been totally […]

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