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The State of the Union – Markets

Global stock and bond markets: Watch out below! I discussed over-priced markets here and here and here. 2017 was an outstanding year in many markets. DOW up 24.7% NASDAQ 100 up 31% (Wow!) Nikkei up 19% DAX up 12% Gold up 13.6% Silver up 7.1% XAU (gold mining stocks) Index up 8% Dollar Index DOWN 10% We can be certain of the following: Death, Taxes and Politics. When markets move too far and too fast in either direction, they correct. Bubbles crash! SO WHAT? We live with the inevitability of death, and the predations of taxes and politics. Stock markets […]

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An “Unprestigious” Preview of Debt Deflation

Carillion PLC Deflation

An “Unprestigious” Preview of Debt Deflation By Elliott Wave International Evidence: Your Bond Fund Is Riskier Than You Think Debt deflation has taken down a huge multinational builder. Pitfalls in the bond market are growing too risky for bond investors to ignore. Learn what you need to know in a free, new report from EWI’s Murray Gunn — “Your Bond Fund: It’s Riskier Than You Think.” Learn more and register for free! This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline An “Unprestigious” Preview of Debt Deflation. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting […]

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A.I. Bets & All-Time Low Bond Volatility (Macro Musings)

Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings. Just a reminder, we’re releasing the newest issue of our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR) early next week. In it we’re covering a basket of agricultural stocks that are ready to rip just like our IPI play (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, read our article below). Phase 3, the Overheat Phase, is a target rich environment. There’s a lot of profits to be made. If you’d like to come along for the ride, make sure you subscribe to the MIR by clicking here. Our Recent Articles — The Overheat Phase: We […]

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Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan Ominously Warns That The Biggest Bond Bubble In History Is About To Burst

Are we right on the verge of one of the greatest financial collapses in American history?  I have been repeatedly warning that our ridiculously over-inflated stock market bubble could burst at any time, but former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes that the bond bubble actually presents an even greater danger.  When you look at the long-term charts, you will see that an epic bond bubble has been growing since the early 1980s, and when it finally collapses the financial carnage is going to be unlike anything we have ever seen before. Since the last financial crisis, global central banks […]

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Not Quite a Stock… Not Quite a Bond

Stock prices are expensive by just about any traditional metric you want to use (and have been for years), yet prices keep edging higher. And it’s doing this in the face of Fed rate hikes and rising long-term bond yields. It reminds me a little of the late 1990s. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance” in the stock market in late 1996… yet prices continued to get even more irrationally exuberant for another three full years. Is history repeating itself? Frankly, we can’t really know that until after the fact. All we can do is look at the […]

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Closed-End Bond Funds are Ripe for the Picking

You really can’t beat getting a dollar for 90 cents. Unless, of course, you manage to find one for 85 cents. While deals like that really shouldn’t exist in the real world, they’re actually pretty common in the closed-end fund (CEF) space. And today, some of the best bargains can be found among the safest and most conservative CEFs – those investing in tax-free municipal bonds. Right now, you can put together a portfolio of funds offering an immediate 6% tax-free yield, plus the opportunity for respectable capital appreciation. Before I get into that, let’s do a quick review of […]

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India Voids Bank Notes; Is the U.S. Bond Bubble Popping?

Donald Trump promises to “Make America Great Again.” Whether he can do it remains to be seen, but the Federal Reserve Note “dollar” is certainly responding to his victory. Traders began swapping bonds for dollars the morning after the U.S. elections and they haven’t stopped yet. The DXY index topped 101 on Friday – its highest level since early 2003. Beleaguered precious metals bulls are feeling the side effects. The surge in the dollar coincides with the retracement of a portion of the year’s price gains in gold and silver – although gold is still up close to 13% and […]

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Bond Bubble Bust

Rarely do we investors get a market that we know is overvalued and that approaches such clearly defined limits as the bond market now. That is because there is a limit as to how negative bond yields can go. Their expected returns relative to their risks are especially bad. If interest rates rise just a little bit more than is discounted in the curve it will have a big negative effect on bonds and all asset prices, as they are all very sensitive to the discount rate used to calculate the present value of their future cash flows. That is […]

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Global Bond Bubble Threatens Cash Holders

As big as previous real estate and stock market bubbles have been, the current global bubble in government debt dwarfs them all. Not only is it far bigger in size and scope (some $ 60 trillion in sovereign bonds now trade globally); it is also unprecedented in character. The world has rarely seen a bond bull market that is not only 36 years old, but also shows few signs of ending. And never before in recorded history have interest rates gotten so low across the board. How much lower can interest rates go? Conventional wisdom once held that rates could […]

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Bond Bubble To Burst

Harry Dent The great commodity bubble has been steadily bursting since mid-2008, but has taken a nosedive since early 2011. It’s now down 70% overall, and 80%-plus in industrial commodities like iron ore. Real estate has seen its first bubble burst and it clearly looks like a second one is on the way. Stocks have now seen a third bubble and the largest burst is still just ahead… but, the question remains: when does it begin in this   endless realm of QE and stimulus? The bond and gold markets may give us some clues here. Look at the 10-year […]

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