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The Chinese Global Economic Strategy

In the fall of 1993, I was sitting in class in grad school. We were using case studies to explore business management decisions. My professor walked through the history of Otis Elevators, noting that the company had reached market saturation and had choices to make. I was sort of paying attention… sort of not. Then he called on me. “Rodney! What should a company do when it reaches market saturation?!” I fumbled. “Develop a new product or service?” He thundered back, “Find another market!” His point was that Otis Elevators had saturated the U.S. market, but had all of Europe […]

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Estimated Chinese Gold Reserves Surpass 20,000t

BullionStar My best estimate as of June 2017 with respect to total above ground gold reserves within the Chinese domestic market is 20,193 tonnes. The majority of these reserves are held by the citizenry, an estimated 16,193 tonnes; the residual 4,000 tonnes, which is a speculative yet conservative estimate, is held by the Chinese central bank the People’s Bank of China. I’m aware I’ve been absent from writing about the Chinese gold market for a long time, so for some of you it can be burdensome to pick up where we left a few months ago. It is not feasible for […]

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NOVEMBER: Gold Price Down, Chinese Demand Strong Despite Import Curbs

BullionStar From the moment Donald J. Trump got elected as the next President of the United States, on November 8, 2016, the price of gold tumbled 8 % in the remainder of the month – from $ 1,282 USD/oz to $ 1,178 USD/oz. Usually these cascades in the gold price go hand in hand with physical sell-offs in the West and strong demand Asia. It appears November has been no exception. The volume of physical gold withdrawn from vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in November accounted for 215 tonnes, the highest amount in ten months. Year to date SGE withdrawals […]

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Synthetic Gold Leasing: More Details Regarding The “Precious Metals” On Chinese Commercial Bank Balance Sheets.

BullionStar More proof the “precious metals assets” on Chinese commercial bank balance sheets have little to do with the “surplus” gold in China’s domestic market. One of the topics about the Chinese gold market that has not been fully illuminated is the “gold” on the 16 Chinese commercial banks’ balance sheets. At the end of 2015 the aggregated “precious metals assets” on the bank balance sheets accounted for 598 billion yuan (RMB), which translates into approximately 2,682 tonnes of gold – if all the precious metals were gold related, which is very likely. In my previous post on this subject we learned from examining the banks’ […]

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The Chinese Yuan and a Global Tipping Point

Every market cycle has 1 to 2 macro drivers at the heart of its regime. We call these the fulcrum points. Keep an eye on the fulcrum and you’ll know when a major cyclic turn is underfoot. The fulcrum point for the current cycle is without a doubt the US dollar (UUP). The dollar is sitting on top of a $ 9-$ 11 trillion powder keg of foreign carry trades — essentially short dollar positions. And the torch that’s likely to set off this powder keg of deflation is the Chinese yuan (FXI). A depreciating yuan equals a stronger dollar. […]

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Fed Worries of “Eroding Credibility”; Gordon Chang on the Chinese Economy

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. There’s been some big news out of China lately, and today we’ll dive deeper into the discussion when we hear a recent interview I did with Gordon Chang. Mr. Chang is one of the foremost experts on the Chinese economy and has written a book titled The Coming Collapse of China. He’ll tell us why he believes an epic collapse is imminent and what it all means for the Western financial world and why he believes there is what he calls a Chinese floor on the gold price. Don’t miss […]

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What Are These Huge Tonnages In “Precious Metals” On Chinese Commercial Bank Balance Sheets?

BullionStar There has been much conjecture since 2014 about the increasing numbers in the “precious metals” category on the balance sheets of listed Chinese commercial banks. By the end of 2015 China’s largest banks were holding RMB 598 billion in precious metals. Some analysts think that the precious metals on Chinese commercial bank balance sheets are gold reserves purchased on behalf of the Chinese central bank, while others surmise that Chinese banks buy gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and then lend it out so the precious metals on the balance sheets solely represent leased gold. In latter analysis […]

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Spectacular Chinese Gold Demand 2015 Fully Denied By GFMS And Mainstream Media

BullionStar Debunking the Thomson Reuters GFMS Gold Survey 2016 report. New information provides a more detailed perspective on the Chinese domestic gold market.  In the Gold Survey 2016 report by GFMS that covers the global gold market for calendar year 2015 Chinese gold consumption was assessed at 867 tonnes. As Chinese wholesale demand, measured by withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange designated vaults, accounted for 2,596 tonnes in 2015 the difference reached an extraordinary peak for the year. In an attempt to explain the 1,729 tonne gap GFMS presents three brand new (misleading) arguments in the Gold Survey 2016 and reused […]

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Chinese Gold Demand 973t In H1 2016, Nomura SGE Withdrawals Chart False

BullionStar Chinese wholesale gold demand, as measured by withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), reached a sizable 973 metric tonnes in the first half of 2016, down 7 % compared to last year. Although Chinese gold demand year to date at 973 tonnes is slightly down from its record year in 2015 – when China in total net imported over 1,550 tonnes and an astonishing 2,596 tonnes were withdrawn from SGE designated vaults – appetite from the mainland is still the greatest of all single nations worldwide. At the same time the mainstream consultancy firms (World Gold Council, GFMS, […]

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Empty Buildings and Wasted Debt: The Chinese Economic “Miracle”

There’s no doubt that the Chinese economic miracle is real. When you move 500 million people from rural to urban settings, taking them from small farms and putting them in a specialized labor force, the economic dividend is massive. That’s how you keep GDP growing more than 7% for 25 years. But along the way, they wanted more. Beyond building factories and housing for new arrivals, local politicians started building massive, wasteful projects. Political meeting halls… Unused apartment buildings… Empty shopping malls… Part of it might have been poor economic planning, but a bigger, and more common, problem was at […]

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