Trump’s Magic Wand: I Simply Don’t Buy It!

As Trump is inaugurated today, it seems most people are feeling better about the economy. Even a more liberal analyst said yesterday in an interview that he thought Trump should raise the minimum wage to $ 15 to stimulate demand! Seriously?! A Bernie Sanders, far-left strategy in a Republican Congress? How delusional can you get? The problem, as usual, is that economists, analysts and politicians don’t understand the real causes of our economic malaise since 2007, including Trump. It’s not primarily business regulations, or higher taxes. Altogether, U.S. personal and business taxes combined are less than any major country in […]

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This Thanksgiving, Don’t Regret Missing Personal Time

This month I received a jolt to my system, and I’m not talking about the election. The day before voters elected Donald Trump the next president, my brother died of brain cancer. He was diagnosed in February of 2015, and exhausted all treatment two months ago. He was 53. We weren’t especially close for much of our adult life, but we weren’t distant, either. From the late 1990s through the 2000s, his work and family commitments carried him just outside of our normal circle. There was no recrimination, no ill will or falling out to reconcile. Just the normal ebb […]

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Bubbles Don’t Correct, They Burst!

I keep going on the media and saying that we’re going to see the greatest bubble burst in modern history, after the greatest bubbles in history have clearly formed… But everyone says this is not a bubble… Because the central banks will keep supporting the economy and markets with more free money… Because real estate is in tight supply and can only go up… Because there is nowhere else to go but high-dividend stocks… And because sovereign bond yields are going to negative, not just zero. This is absolute BS! Nothing lasts forever. You don’t get something for nothing, and […]

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Don’t Trust Your Gut: Trust a System

In August of 1971, Ray Dalio – now one of the most respected hedge fund billionaires on Wall Street – was a lowly clerk working on the Street. By coincidence, Dalio was starting his career during one of history’s critical turning points. President Nixon had just taken the dollar off of the gold standard. Dalio’s gut told him the market would crash the next day. Instead, it rallied. Hard! The Dow finished the day almost 4% higher. It’s not much of a stretch to compare then to now… Back then – as now – you had central banks meddling in […]

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No, please don’t show me your model

Unsurprisingly, on my post “The Art of Economics“, which attempted to put the mathematical models beloved of mainstream economics firmly in their place, is a comment defending mainstream mathematical models. Here it is, in part: Secondly, you definitely don’t need obscure heterodox models to predict a financial crisis. I’ve cited it before, but for instance Kiyotaki-Moore basically sketches out how a crisis like this can occur. There are actually plenty of examples of perfectly fine mainstream papers on this topic. And it wasn’t just heterodox economists that predicted it. People like Dean Baker, Roubini or even Krugman didn’t exactly rely on […]

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George Soros Is Preparing For Economic Collapse – Does He Know Something That You Don’t?

Why is George Soros selling stocks, buying gold and making “a series of big, bearish investments”?  If things stay relatively stable like they are right now, these moves will likely cost George Soros a tremendous amount of money.  But if a major financial crisis is imminent, he stands to make obscene returns.  So does George Soros know something that the rest of us do not?  Could it be possible that he has spent too much time reading websites such as The Economic Collapse Blog?  What are we to make of all of this? The recent trading moves that Soros has […]

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Don’t Jump Into MLPs With Tepper Just Yet

Range-bound markets over the past year have made it difficult to earn good returns. Most investors haven’t made any money at all. And this reality has forced them to pile into high-yield products to make up the difference. One popular area to reach for yield has been the energy space. The general belief is that crude has hit a bottom and that energy companies are now a safe bet. Especially with the dividends some of them are offering. Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper is all over this theme. His interests lie specifically in Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) and Williams […]

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Aramco: Don’t Take the Bait!

Saudi Arabia has a problem. The country’s wealth is completely dependent on oil revenue, which state officials use to bribe the population into submission. But with the price of oil hovering in the mid-$ 40s, after falling from over $ 100 in recent years, the Saudis have been dipping into their national piggy bank to make good on their social promises. They need oil prices over $ 60 to balance their budget, but that might not be in the cards anytime soon. Looking at a future full of American fracking, country officials decided they needed to change course. So, they […]

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Here’s Why Investors Don’t Trust Anyone in Power

Don’t lie, cheat, or steal. Those seem like pretty good rules to live by. Most of us learned these values as children. We watched our parents and, when we strayed from the straight and narrow, suffered through a variety of consequences. The message doesn’t get through to everyone, of course, so we still need prisons for criminals. But there’s a group of people who exist in the gray area, that shadowy space between upstanding citizens and outright thieves. They know the difference between right and wrong, which is clear from their pleas when they’re caught. But it’s all an act. […]

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Think the Market Will Reach a New High? Here’s Why We Don’t

Stocks are once again rallying after another “mini crash” at the start of the year. We’ve had three of these things since October 2014 without much to show for it. As Adam warned Boom & Bust readers earlier this week, stocks have basically gone nowhere for a year and a half. After the first crash in late 2014, stocks were able to eke out a new high into May of last year. But since then, stocks have failed to make new highs despite strong attempts like this one. Ten months without a new high. That’s only happened at 11 other […]

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