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The State of the Union – Markets

Global stock and bond markets: Watch out below! I discussed over-priced markets here and here and here. 2017 was an outstanding year in many markets. DOW up 24.7% NASDAQ 100 up 31% (Wow!) Nikkei up 19% DAX up 12% Gold up 13.6% Silver up 7.1% XAU (gold mining stocks) Index up 8% Dollar Index DOWN 10% We can be certain of the following: Death, Taxes and Politics. When markets move too far and too fast in either direction, they correct. Bubbles crash! SO WHAT? We live with the inevitability of death, and the predations of taxes and politics. Stock markets […]

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“Party Like It’s 1999” (or 2008 or 1987 or 1929)

To paraphrase the highly regarded fund manager and notable bear, John Hussman, you can look like an idiot before a Bubble pops or after it’s popped. I guess I’m squarely in the camp of looking like an idiot before the bubble pops. I might watch “The Big Short Again” for some “moral fortitude.” With history’s stamp of approval on my side, all I can do is shake my head and chuckle. As soon as the Dow crossed over 23,000 on Wednesday, the “experts” on bubblevision began speculating how long it would take for the Dow to hit 24k. I was […]

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Eight Days to Destruction

Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane on August 25. The wind and flooding caused massive destruction. The news mentioned one hundred billion dollars as a preliminary estimate of the damage. Eight days before on August 17 Harvey became a named storm. There was no apparent cause for alarm on August 17. Two days later it was upgraded to a tropical depression. Harvey reached hurricane strength on August 24. Much can happen in eight days. August 17: Harvey is named August 21: Total eclipse of the sun. The path crossed the contiguous 48 states. August 21: President Trump announces […]

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