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The State of the Union – Markets

Global stock and bond markets: Watch out below! I discussed over-priced markets here and here and here. 2017 was an outstanding year in many markets. DOW up 24.7% NASDAQ 100 up 31% (Wow!) Nikkei up 19% DAX up 12% Gold up 13.6% Silver up 7.1% XAU (gold mining stocks) Index up 8% Dollar Index DOWN 10% We can be certain of the following: Death, Taxes and Politics. When markets move too far and too fast in either direction, they correct. Bubbles crash! SO WHAT? We live with the inevitability of death, and the predations of taxes and politics. Stock markets […]

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Do You Prefer Poison or Antidote?

The official U.S. national debt, ignoring off-balance sheet liabilities, unfunded liabilities, “missing money” and fudging was: Sept. 30, 2016 $ 19.573 trillion October 2, 2017 $ 20.347 trillion One year increase $ 0.774 trillion, or $ 774,000,000,000 Convert those excess expenses to $ 20 bills (from the ATM). That makes 38.7 billion $ 20 dollar bills. Each bill weighs 1 gram. The paper bills representing the one-year increase in the national debt weigh about 38,000 metric tons. Thirty-eight thousand tons of toxic currency are fed into the economy each year. They devalue the dollar, create more unpayable debt, and add […]

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“Party Like It’s 1999” (or 2008 or 1987 or 1929)

To paraphrase the highly regarded fund manager and notable bear, John Hussman, you can look like an idiot before a Bubble pops or after it’s popped. I guess I’m squarely in the camp of looking like an idiot before the bubble pops. I might watch “The Big Short Again” for some “moral fortitude.” With history’s stamp of approval on my side, all I can do is shake my head and chuckle. As soon as the Dow crossed over 23,000 on Wednesday, the “experts” on bubblevision began speculating how long it would take for the Dow to hit 24k. I was […]

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Eight Days to Destruction

Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane on August 25. The wind and flooding caused massive destruction. The news mentioned one hundred billion dollars as a preliminary estimate of the damage. Eight days before on August 17 Harvey became a named storm. There was no apparent cause for alarm on August 17. Two days later it was upgraded to a tropical depression. Harvey reached hurricane strength on August 24. Much can happen in eight days. August 17: Harvey is named August 21: Total eclipse of the sun. The path crossed the contiguous 48 states. August 21: President Trump announces […]

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Silver and NASDAQ Strength Will Reverse

Bubbles come and go. Silver and gold – 1980 Japanese Nikkei – 1990 NASDAQ – 2000 Mortgages and Real Estate – 2006 Bonds, Debt, Stocks, Real Estate – 2017 Examine the following graph of monthly data for 32 years of the NASDAQ 100 Index and Silver. We saw the NASDAQ bubble in 1999-2000, a rapid rise for silver in 2010 – 2011 and a large rise in the NASDAQ 100 during 2009 – 2017. Prices for both markets have often risen too far and too fast, and then corrected or crashed. The NASDAQ dropped more than 80% from 2000 to […]

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The Rollercoaster Ride of the Nasdaq: Big Drop Ahead?

Most of the major U.S. stock indices hit all-time highs recently. The Dow reached 18,288.63, the S&P 2117.39 — both of them records. But there’s one that didn’t quite break its high from 15 years ago… the Nasdaq. This leads us to one of the biggest questions we’re looking at in the market: Are we going to see another tech bust like the one we saw in 2000? Mark Cuban came out recently and said that today’s bubble in tech stocks is even worse than the dot-com bubble of 2000, with recent IPOs way overvalued and more illiquid than ever. […]

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