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Stock Market Dangers, Stress Test Your Portfolio; Axel Merk: Lot of Damage to Be Caused

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Later in today’s program we’ll hear from Axel Merk of Merk Investments. Axel gives a wonderful explanation of what’s behind this week’s wild market action, weighs in on gold’s role as a safe haven in the midst of potential chaos and tells us why he believes volatility his here to stay. Don’t miss a fantastic interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update. Well, there were few places for investors to hide this week. Stocks, bonds, and to a lesser extent precious metals all got hit with […]

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Macro Ops 2017 Portfolio Review: Pain + Reflection = Progress

Macro Ops Portfolio Return Metrics *Through December 8th 2017 YTD: 22.19% 12-Month Return: 20.57% Inception (Jan 1st, 2016): 40.88% Annual Vol: 7.85% Sharpe Ratio: 2.29 Max DD: –3.97% To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes. ~ George Soros I learned that everyone makes mistakes and has weaknesses and that one of the most important things that differentiates people is their approach to handling them. […]

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Ray Dalio’s Portfolio Allocation Strategy: The Holy Grail

Daily Speculations are for me (Alex) to share some quick thoughts on charts/trades I’m looking at, books and articles I find interesting, or maybe just some photos of my dog Mars. As the name states, I’ll be sharing something daily but some days I won’t because I’m lazy. Here’s an excerpt from Ray Dalio’s recent book Principles recounting his biggest aha!” moment in investing. This epiphany is what helped Dalio develop the unmatched asset allocation strategy he uses in his investment portfolios (emphasis is mine):  From my earlier failures, I knew that no matter how confident I was in making anyone […]

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How to Amazon-Proof Your Real Estate Portfolio

I recently heard Amazon, the world’s largest online retailer, described as a “bull in a china shop” for the way it’s disrupted industry after industry. But that’s really the wrong analogy. An angry bull lashes out erratically, goring or trampling whatever happens to be in front of it at the moment. Amazon is far too mechanical for that. The better comparison for Amazon would be a steamroller. Like a steamroller, Amazon slowly and methodically flattens everything in its path. Bookstores? Obliterated. Shopping malls? On life support… and just barely. Department stores? Dying a painful death by 1,000 cuts. Even grocery […]

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A Review Of Lawrence Creatura’s “Long and Short: Confessions of a Portfolio Manager”

The following review is straight from Operator Kean, a member of the Macro Ops Hub. To contact Kean, visit his website here. Lawrence Creatura recently shared his insights from over two decades of investing in markets. The following are my takeaways from Long & Short: Confessions of a Portfolio Manager. Identify Your Comparative Advantage Creatura advises that investors understand their edge. This point is similar to Warren Buffett’s advice about knowing your ‘Circle of Competence’ — finding what you’re really good at and being aware of where that boundary/circle ends. Creatura writes: Prominent fund manager Bill Miller, who as the […]

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Investor Sentiment: Your Politics Can Affect Your Portfolio

Enough has already been written about the presidential election of 2016. While historians are likely to debate its significance for decades to come, most of the rest of us are just happy it’s over. But the stock market’s reaction to the election… well, that’s still worth discussing because it has a direct impact on our portfolios. We have money at stake, so it’s important to know what’s going on here and if it’s sustainable. It’s funny, I was partially right about the election and yet completely wrong about the market impact. I’d been telling readers for weeks to prepare for […]

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The Gilded Age Of A 60/40 Portfolio Split Is OVER

   Charles Sizemore The traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation, long the linchpin of portfolios, is broken, and it’s not coming back together any time soon. As investors, we have to move on. I know, I know. The 60/40 portfolio is actually having a decent 2016. A 60% allocation to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and a 40% allocation to the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) would be up about 3% year to date. Don’t get used to it. Looking ahead, the math doesn’t work out. Let’s take a look at the numbers. Back in 1980, the 10-year Treasury yielded […]

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The Standard 60/40 Stock & Bond Portfolio Won’t Survive The Next Decade

Everyone’s familiar with the classic 60/40 investment portfolio. If you’ve ever dealt with financial advisors, this is the standard allocation they’ll recommend. 60% of your money in the stock market, and 40% in bonds. This has no doubt been a great strategy the past few years. Check out the statistics from Jan. 1 2010 to Jan. 1 2016 below: The standard 60/40 portfolio grew an average of 9.88% per year. And not only that, but the Sharpe ratio was at a stellar 1.33! The Sharpe ratio is a standard industry measure for calculating risk-adjusted return. Sharpe ratio = (Mean portfolio […]

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“Brexit” Could Take a Wrecking Ball to Your Portfolio

On June 23, voters in the United Kingdom will decide in a referendum whether to remain in the European Union. And while it looks like the “stay” camp might edge out the “leave” camp, with six weeks until the vote, the polls show a statistical dead heat. If I were a betting man, I’d wager on cooler heads prevailing and the Brits opting to stay put. That’s what the actual betting markets are pricing in, anyway. But what if they don’t? After all, a year ago no one would have bet on Donald Trump becoming the presumptive nominee of the […]

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The Next Bankruptcy to Hit Your Portfolio

There’s an old saying that if you owe the bank $ 1 million, you have a problem. But if you owe the bank $ 100 million, then the bank has a problem. That’s the situation we’re in today. States around the country have racked up outrageous unpaid balances for their pensions. Few of them have any plan for digging out of the hole. Since they have no plan, they’re creating issues for everyone who might be called upon to help them make good on their obligations. Even if you don’t live in one of these states, you might still have […]

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