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Silver Prices and the Russian Connection

Silver prices nearly reached $ 50.00 in April of 2011. They crashed to a low under $ 14 in December of 2015 and currently (December 2016) sit at about $ 16. Silver prices, in our increasingly unreal debt based fiat currency world, streak higher and subsequently crash to unbelievable lows. Option One: Silver prices are near the end of their correction and will rally substantially higher. Why? Exponential increases in debt and total currency in circulation lift the prices for nearly everything, including college tuition, cigarettes, the S&P, housing, health care, silver and gold. We have heard this before and […]

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What has gone wrong with oil prices, debt, and GDP growth?

Our economy is a mystery to almost everyone, including economists. Let me explain the way I see the situation: (1) The big thing that pulls the economy forward is the time-shifting nature of debt and debt-like instruments. If we want any kind of specialization, we need some sort of long-term obligation that will make that specialization worthwhile. If one hunter-gatherer specializes in finding flints that will start fires, that hunter-gatherer needs some sort of guarantee that others, who are finding food, will share some of their food with him, so that the group, as a whole, can prosper. Others, who […]

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4 Surprising Charts About Silver Production & Future Higher Prices

If the market has finally experienced a peak in world silver production, this warns of higher prices in the future.  In addition, the global silver market suffered another large net supply deficit in 2016.  These factors point to a big upcoming trend change in the future silver market. The Silver Institute just published its 2016 Silver Interim Report.  This report is published by Thomson Reuters GFMS.  According to their forecast for 2016, global silver production will decline to 887 million oz (Moz), down from 893 Moz in 2015: While forecasted global silver production for 2016 is down only slightly versus […]

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Silver Prices in an Exponential Financial System

Our financial systems create exponential increases in: Debt Prices for stocks Prices for commodities Currency in circulation Prices for gold and silver Why? Fractional reserve banking, central banks creating more currency, and politicians who spend governments deeper into debt each year… but this article isn’t about why. Student loan debt in the U.S. is about $ 1.4 trillion, auto debt is about $ 1 trillion, official national debt is nearly $ 20 trillion, corporate debt is huge and the list goes on. Much of it will never be paid in current dollars. Default will occur via repudiation or hyperinflation. Look […]

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Why energy prices are ultimately headed lower; what the IMF missed

We have been hearing a great deal about IMF concerns recently, after the release of its October 2016 World Economic Outlook and its Annual Meeting October 7-9. The concerns mentioned include the following: Too much growth in debt, with China particularly mentioned as a problem World economic growth seems to have slowed on a long-term basis Central bank intervention required to produce artificially low interest rates, to produce even this low growth Global international trade is no longer growing rapidly Economic stagnation could lead to protectionist calls These issues are very much related to issues that I have been writing about: […]

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What Happened to Gold and Silver Prices Last Week?

Gold and silver prices charged higher during the first 6 months of the year. They fell into a rut over the summer, and then hit the skids last Tuesday. Lots of bullion investors are wondering what in the world happened. There are three primary factors driving this price correction. The first is the strength in the U.S. dollar. The DXY index, which measures the dollar against other major world currencies, hit its highest levels since July. This surge, however, is not driven by safe-haven buying as it was immediately following Brexit. That sort of fear driven buying would almost certainly […]

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Silver Prices – What Next?

Point One: Debt grows exponentially, not because it should, but because our debt-based financial system practically requires it. Point Two: Silver and gold prices increase along with the exponential growth in debt and currency in circulation. Point Three: Similar exponential increases are evident in the DOW, S&P 500, prices for most commodities, and certainly for health care, college tuition, auto prices etc. Point Four: Exponential increases cannot continue forever, but they can persist for a long time. The National Debt: Current US official national debt is about $ 19.4 trillion. Unfunded liabilities are five to ten times higher. Do we […]

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Energy limits: Why we see rising wealth disparity and low prices

Last week, I gave a fairly wide-ranging presentation at the 2016 Biophysical Economics Conference called Complexity: The Connection Between Fossil Fuel EROI, Human Energy EROI, and Debt (pdf). In this post, I discuss the portion of the talk that explains several key issues: Why we are right now seeing so many problems with respect to wealth disparity and low commodity prices (Answer: World per capita energy consumption is already falling, and the energy/economy system needs to reflect this problem somehow.) Why the quest for growing technology leads to growing wealth disparity (Answer: The economy must be configured in more of a […]

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U.S. Home Prices Are Hitting Peak Bubble Territory

Two weeks ago, I wrote about an upcoming New York City condominium listing for $ 250 million. I mention this because, as I’ve explained before, it’s always the tallest buildings and priciest condos to get hit during major downturns. Just look at the early 1930s and mid-1970s marking peak bubbles if you don’t believe me! You’ll understand, then, why I smiled when I saw a Forbes slideshow called “The Little Black Book of Billionaire Secrets,” featuring the most expensive homes in each of the 51 states, including Washington D.C. North Dakota held the honor of the least expensive home, at […]

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US 2015 Oil Production and Future Oil Prices

Oil production can be confusing because there are various “pieces” that may or may not be included. In this analysis, I look at oil production of the United States broadly (including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and biofuels), because this is the way oil consumption is defined. I also provide some thoughts regarding the direction of future world oil prices. Figure 1. US Liquid Fuels production by month based on EIA March 2016 Monthly Energy Review Reports. US oil production clearly flattened out in 2015. If we look at changes relative to the same month, one-year prior, we see that […]

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