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Bitcoin’s Downside: Know the Risk Before You Plunge In

On Tuesday, I showed you how the bitcoin bubble looks a lot like the internet bubble that inflated in the final phase – the orgasm – of the great tech bubble of December 1994 into March 2000. It crashed faster and harder than the Nasdaq bubble – down 93% compared to 78%. It was also a leading indicator for the Nasdaq crash as it only retested its January high rather than exceeding it. The internet bubble went up 7.5 times in just 16 months. At close to $ 20,000, Bitcoin has gone up 14.8 times in just eight months. That’s […]

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Bruce Kovner On Listening To The Market, Politics, & Risk Control

The following is a fantastic speech from Bruce Kovner on Caxton Associates’ 20th anniversary. Kovner shares a plethora of trading wisdoms including the three most important contributors to his hedge fund’s success. You can read the original speech from 2003 here. ~~~~~~ To all my colleagues, to friends and associates who have worked and invested with us over the years, may I say welcome to this 20th anniversary party. This is the first time Caxton has thrown a party for our extended family and I am happy and thrilled to welcome all of you. If we are able to catch […]

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Decline in Peru’s Silver Production, Future Supply at Risk?

The Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining just released their silver production data for February, and it was a whopper to the downside. Actually, I was quite surprised to see how much Peru’s silver production declined versus the same month last year. Also, Peru’s gold February production took a similar big hit. According to the Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining data, the country’s silver production fell 12% to 323.1 metric tons (mt) this February versus 367.4 mt the same month last year: This is a 44 mt decline in one month, nearly 1.5 million oz lost. Here is the […]

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Your Retirement Income is at Risk! (part two)

Part one is available here. Discussed in Part One: Richard Russell on “The Big Lie.” “Central banks create fiat money, denigrate gold, and try to convince the people that the money they print is wealth. That’s the great lie behind fiat money.” Social Security and the pension plans of many cities, counties, states, and countries are increasingly insolvent as zero and negative interest rates destroy fixed income investment returns. Worse, pension benefits are paid in continually devaluing fiat currencies. If the currency becomes worthless, so are your pension benefits. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, and many more come to mind. The dollar, […]

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Your Retirement Income is at Risk!

Social Security Pensions? Surely they are safe … the government told me they were safe. But there is more to the story, so read on. Private Pensions? State retirement accounts? An IRA or 401(k)? Equivalents in Europe, the UK, Australia, and Japan are probably similar. All are at risk and will be discussed further in part two. Few individuals think about such things, our unpleasant realities, the facts, and mathematical inevitability. It is easier to dream about the “free stuff” we will collect when our favorite Presidential candidate is elected. You know … “hope and change, a chicken in every […]

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Silver, Silliness, Gold, and Risk

The movie “The Big Short” features Michael Burry.  His statement from Zerohedge: “It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale.  This is toxic.  Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk pricing mechanism is broken.”  Repeat:  “THE RISK PRICING MECHANISM IS BROKEN.” What risks could be mispriced?  A few come to mind. The world is saturated in debt – over $ 200 Trillion. Does anyone expect that debt to be repaid?  What are the risks when over $ 200 Trillion in debt can be counted as […]

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Risk On? Risk Off? Find Out Where Your Money Lies

It’s almost Christmas, “the hap-happiest season of all.” Yet, here’s a sobering fact for U.S. investors: S&P 500 stocks are actually lower now than at the end of last year (chart: Google Finance): You could say that we’ve had a long bull market, so one “slow” year is OK. But Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall, the editors of Elliott Wave International’s Financial Forecast Service, have recently documented several indicators which confirm that investors are actually losing their appetite for risk. In fact, EWI has put together a subscriber-level special report with specific details on this phenomenon — from IPOs to […]

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Real Estate: The Downside Risk in 20 Major U.S. Cities

I like to practice what I preach. I don’t own my home. I rent. I’ve been renting my house in Tampa since October 2005, because I’ve seen what’s coming – the bursting of the greatest real estate bubble in modern history. I don’t want to get caught up in the storm when it hits… and I don’t want you to either. That’s why I’ve been saying you should sell all non-essential real estate as this bubble has rekindled – and hence, is in danger of bursting again. I realize that’s not an easy decision to make. I can talk people […]

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The Last, Great Run For The U.S. Dollar, The Death Of The Euro And 74 Trillion In Currency Derivatives At Risk

Are we on the verge of an unprecedented global currency crisis?  On Tuesday, the euro briefly fell below $ 1.07 for the first time in almost a dozen years.  And the U.S. dollar continues to surge against almost every other major global currency.  The U.S. dollar index has now risen an astounding 23 percent in just the last eight months.  That is the fastest pace that the U.S. dollar has risen since 1981.  You might be tempted to think that a stronger U.S. dollar is good news, but it isn’t.  A strong U.S. dollar hurts U.S. exports, thus harming our […]

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