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Trade and currency, a Brexiter’s delusion

If there is one industry Brexit has stimulated, it is the production of daft ideas for regenerating the UK economy after its exit from the EU. Many of the offerings have been from people who really like the idea of Britain becoming a European version of Singapore. But the left wing is not short of silly schemes either. This one, from businessman and self-styled economist John Mills, is one of the silliest I have seen. John Mills is chairman of John Mills Limited (JML). On his biography, he describes this as “a consumer goods company specialising in selling products requiring […]

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Imports From China Hit Record High As U.S. Trade Deficit Continues To Explode

It should upset you that virtually everything stocking the shelves of our major retailers seems to have been made somewhere else.  As a nation, we are consuming far more wealth than we are producing, and that is a recipe for national economic suicide.  This week we learned that imports from China hit an all-time record high in October, and that was one of the primary reasons why our trade deficit hit a staggering 48.7 billion dollars during that month.  Year after year we buy far more stuff from the rest of the world than they buy from us, and this […]

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Tariffs, trade and money illusion

In the past few days, I have read three pieces from Economists for Brexit – now renamed “Economists for Free Trade” – extolling the virtues of “hard” (or “clean”) Brexit and calling for the UK to drop all external tariffs to zero unilaterally after Brexit. Two are written by professors of finance (Kent Matthews and Kevin Dowd). The third is from the veteran economist Patrick Minford. All three of these pieces wax lyrical about the benefits to GDP and welfare from unilaterally reducing external tariffs to zero. But bizarrely, not one gives adequate consideration to the currency effects of trade […]

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U.S. Gold Exports Surge As Gold Trade Deficit Continues

It’s no secret that the East (Asians and Indians) continue to acquire a lot of gold as Western demand has weakened this year. According to the most recent data released by the USGS – United States Geological Survey, U.S. gold exports surged during the first four months of the 2017 versus the same period last year. How much? A great deal. In the first four months of 2017, the U.S. exported a stunning 173 metric tons of gold (5.5 million oz) compared to 119 metric tons (3.8 million oz) during the same period last year. Thus, U.S. gold exports Jan-Apr […]

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A Corn/Soybean Spread Trade

The following is straight from Operator Jose, a member of the Macro Ops Hub. The Corn to Soybeans Ratio is very important to American farmers. In normal conditions, it’s a key factor that helps them decide how much Soybeans or Corn they’ll put into the ground. Both crops compete for the same acreage area. I like to think of it like this: Farmers have a portfolio, but instead of money, they have acreages. There are two assets they can choose to invest in. Either Corn or Soybeans. This key decision is ASSET ALLOCATION. Whether they want more exposure to Corn […]

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The Upcoming Trade War Between The U.S. And China Will Be The Biggest In The History Of The Planet

The United States and China are the two largest economies in the world by far, and the upcoming trade war that is about to erupt will be cataclysmic for both sides.  The Trump administration and the Chinese government are both gearing up for a prolonged trade war, and this is going to have very severe implications for the entire global economy.  During the campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly stated that we “can’t continue to allow China to rape our country”, and he was quite correct about that.  Over the past ten years, the U.S. has run a trade deficit of over […]

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Plan Your Trades And Trade Your Plan

The following is part 3 of our 3-part psychology series. You can read part 1 here and part 2 here. Clearly our biology and the biases that come with it are hazardous to our financial health. But how exactly do we solve this problem? The trick is to plan your trades and trade your plan. The first step to successful trading is creating a solid strategy that accounts for every possible market scenario. High volatility, low volatility, black swans, it doesn’t matter. Everything should be planned for. Nothing should be a surprise. A detailed strategy will pre-plan the action steps […]

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Trump’s Trade Policy Likely to Drive Price Inflation and Gold Buying

Donald Trump’s trade policy is likely to spark higher consumer price inflation, and that has ramifications for gold and silver prices. Regardless of where investors stand regarding the president’s plan to make Mexico “pay” for the border wall, if he is successful in getting Congress to impose a hefty tax on imports it will mean higher prices for things. A tax on goods from China could be even more inflationary. Saying that higher import taxes are inflationary may be a statement of the obvious, but it is worth making given Trump’s recent promotion of a tax on Mexican goods. He […]

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Brexit, trade and echoes of the past

Brexit supporters have been severely critical of the OBR for its grim outlook for the UK post Brexit. The OBR is by no means the most negative of the professional forecasting bodies, and historically its forecasts have tended to err on the side of optimism, as Duncan Weldon observes. But it struggles to find anything good to say about post-Brexit Britain. In particular, it is distinctly negative about the future for Britain’s external trade. Brexit is above all a shock to trade, since its primary impact will be on Britain’s trading relationships, not only with the EU but with other countries […]

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Who Wins and Who Loses in a Global Trade War?

My research in recent months has focused increasingly on how the surprise Brexit vote and Trump’s victory are actually not that surprising after all. They’re a clear sign of a growing number of everyday people rejecting the massive globalization trend that has surged since World War II. The world “shrinking” seemed to be a win-win at first. Countries could focus on what they do best and export to others while importing what they need. And, yes, longer-term that does work, as Adam Smith first espoused in 1776. But there’s a catch, as Australian Steve Keen, one of those rare economists […]

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