Lessons From A Trading Great: Amos Hostetter

Amos Hostetter cofounded Commodities Corporation (otherwise known as CC) along with Helmut Weymar back in 1969. CC is the trading shop that produced more legendary trading talent than the Yankees have All-Stars. Alumni include: Bruce Kovner, Michael Marcus, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota and more… Hostetter was considered the wise sage and mentor of the group. He’s credited with imbuing many of these trading greats with the wisdom and knowledge they used to achieve their grand heights. Upon his untimely death in a car accident in 1977, the directors of CC commissioned one of their traders, Morris Markovitz, to gather […]

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Donald Trump: The Embodiment Of Trading Greatness

Paul Tudor Jones, Bruce Kovner, Jesse Livermore… forget about em. The only name you need to know when it comes to trading greatness is Donald Trump. He’s everything a trader should aspire to be. When it comes to having “strong opinions, weakly held”, Trump has EXTREMELY strong opinions, EXTREMELY weakly held. At the beginning of his campaign, The Donald was 2000% sure that China was a currency manipulator. But after a single piece of chocolate cake with his new buddy Xi, China was a problem no more. In fact, that piece of cake was SO good that Trump is now […]

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Trading A Le Pen Win In The French Elections

Success in the markets requires thinking in possibilities. A great trader understands the permanent information deficit he’s faced with and why it makes market prediction impossible. All he can do is plan for a range of reasonable outcomes and adjust his strategy as new information presents itself.   In the latest issue of our Macro Intelligence Report (MIR), we discussed the reasons for the rise of populism across the Western world and how it’s currently impacting the Soros-style false trend in European equities. To review, a Soros-style false trend develops when a narrative is founded on untrue assumptions, and yet […]

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Paper Gold Trading Market Continues To Depress Price

How do you depress the physical gold price? It’s quite easy… you throw $ 10 trillion paper dollars at it. Not only did global paper gold trading amount reach a new record in 2016, it surpassed the previous year’s total by nearly 50%. This is simply amazing when we look around at the staggering amount of insanity taking place in the financial markets. With the economic and financial markets sitting at the edge of the cliff, it would seem prudent for investors to curtail their highly leverage bets in the “Paper Gold Casino” and buckle down by purchasing real physical […]

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Lessons From A Trading Great: Jim Leitner

Jim Leitner is the greatest macro trader you’ve never heard of. He was once a currency expert on Wall Street, pulling billions from the markets, but now he plays the game through his own family office. Leitner understands the Macro Ops “go anywhere” mentality better than any other trader: Global macro is the willingness to opportunistically look at every idea that comes along, from micro situations to country-specific situations, across every asset category and every country in the world. It’s the combination of a broad top-down country analysis with a bottom-up micro analysis of companies. In many cases, after we […]

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Expected Value (EV) & Bayesian Analysis In Trading

An alternative title for a trader is “professional uncertainty manager.” Trading is a business of possibilities, not certainties. Despite our best efforts to predict financial markets, we’ll inevitably be wrong time and time again. Many of our bets will lose purely due to bad luck or unforeseen circumstances. It doesn’t matter if they were objectively good bets. Professional gamblers make for great traders because they too live in a world of managed uncertainty. A pro poker player knows that pocket Aces are statistically likely to beat pocket Kings 83% of the time. He’ll take this bet any day of the […]

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Goals, Expectations, & Inner Alignment In Trading

Why Do You Trade? It’s important to understand the true drivers behind why you trade the markets. The answer is different for everyone. We all have different circumstances, wants, wishes, and desires. Find yours. Below are common reasons people get involved: Entertainment Gambling Staying Informed About Economic and Political Developments Intellectual Pursuit/Curiosity Side Income Primary Income Advising Friends and Family Professionally Managing A Fund Your reasons influence how you attack markets. For example, people managing their own wealth might prioritize account growth over shallow drawdowns. Whereas the individual looking to run money professionally will need to focus on risk control. […]

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Avoiding Cognitive Biases In Trading

The following is part 2 of our 3-part psychology series. To read part 1, click here. On top of rampant emotions and a dire need to “fit in”, our biological evolution also had another side-effect. It made us lazy. Back in the day we were faced with an endless cycle of feast and famine. We’d have short periods of feeding followed by long periods of minimal sustenance living. So naturally we evolved to conserve our energy as much as possible. If given two options we’re conditioned to choose the one that involves the least amount of effort. This applies not […]

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Lessons From a Trading Great: Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater. Two years ago, Bridgewater surpassed Soros’ Quantum fund for the title of most profitable hedge fund of all time; returning over $ 46 billion since inception. In your author’s humble opinion, Ray Dalio is one of the more original thinkers alive today. In the investing world he stands alone in his depth of understanding of how the “economic machine” works. His “principles” for life and management are like beautiful computer code designed to produce desired outcomes while stripping away the non-essential. The man is a philosophizing engineer taking apart and designing machines for […]

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Lessons from a Trading Great: Paul Tudor Jones (PTJ)

From Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards: October 1987 was a devastating month for most investors as the world stock markets witnessed a collapse that rivaled 1929. That same month, the Tudor Futures Fund, managed by Paul Tudor Jones, registered an incredible 62 percent return. Jones has always been a maverick trader. His trading style is unique and his performance is uncorrelated with other money managers. Perhaps most important, he has done what many thought impossible: combine five consecutive, triple-digit return years with very low equity retracements. (I am fudging slightly; in 1986, Paul’s fund realized only a 99.2 percent gain!) Jones […]

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